Global sugar prices fell yesterday to their lowest level in four years. Sugar futures dropped 3.2% in a single day and are down as much as 34% year-on-year — the sharpest annual decline since 2017. In Poland, according to the national statistics office (GUS), retail sugar prices are currently 23% lower than a year ago, with supermarket prices now below 3 PLN per kilogram.
The drop in global prices is being driven primarily by developments in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer. The country is experiencing a rapid expansion in the production of corn-based ethanol. This shift has disrupted the traditional market structure, as corn ethanol has proven cheaper to produce than sugarcane ethanol — prompting sugar mills to divert more cane toward sugar rather than fuel.
Forecasts for the 2025–2026 season suggest that global sugar production will exceed consumption by 2.8 million tonnes — a stark reversal from last year’s deficit. Brazilian mills are expected to produce a record 43 million tonnes of sugar next year, nearly 5% more than this year. At the same time, the share of corn ethanol in Brazil’s biofuel mix is projected to rise from 23% to 32%. This oversupply of biofuel could depress prices even further, reinforcing the shift toward higher sugar output.
Brazil currently accounts for roughly 24% of global sugar production, or 43.7 million tonnes. India ranks second with a 15% share (28 million tonnes), although its industry is constrained by drought and export restrictions. The European Union is third with a 9% share and output of 16.5 million tonnes, mainly from sugar beets. Poland, with a record 2.577 million tonnes in the 2024/2025 season, is the EU’s third-largest producer. China and Thailand follow, each contributing around 6% of global supply with 10–11 million tonnes annually. Together, these five producers generate over 60% of the world’s sugar — meaning their production decisions have an immediate impact on prices.
Polish consumers are already seeing the effects. According to GUS data from September, sugar prices in Polish stores have fallen 23% over the past year. A kilogram now costs under 3 PLN in supermarkets, down from around 4.5 PLN a year ago. This is helping ease inflationary pressure, as sugar is a widely used input across the food industry and influences the pricing of many processed products.
Sugar may not be sweetening investor sentiment — but for consumers and food manufacturers, the trend is welcome. The continued decline in sugar prices could become one of the factors helping to cool inflation in the coming months.
