A global “polycrisis” — the accumulation and overlap of geopolitical, economic and social shocks — is fundamentally changing the relationship between economic performance and the insurance industry. In Poland, GDP is growing, yet corporate insolvencies and claims ratios in trade credit insurance are also sharply increasing. The impact of this divergence is now being acutely felt by insurers.
“Polish companies — just like businesses across Europe and globally — are facing what the media has dubbed a ‘polycrisis’. Multiple crises happening at once, intertwining and intensifying each other. We began with the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine hit our region and disrupted the global economy. Add to this geopolitical tension, trade wars, and policy uncertainty — such as the U.S.–China trade conflict,”
says Marcin Olczak, Head of Credit Risk at Marsh Poland.
Insolvencies Rising Despite Economic Growth
Supply chain disruption, export restrictions and financial volatility are driving risk in B2B transactions. In 2024, Poland recorded 5,576 insolvency cases, up 19% year-on-year (Coface). Allianz Trade forecasts a further 6% rise in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
In practice, this means that even well-managed firms are increasingly struggling with delayed payments and liquidity stress — not always through bankruptcy, but through structured non-payment via simplified restructuring.
“Even if one company manages the crisis well, there’s always the question: will their trading partners survive?” adds Olczak.
Insurance No Longer Mirrors GDP Trends
The historic correlation between GDP growth and profitability in trade credit insurance has broken down. In 2024, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.3%, while inflation eased to around 5% — yet claims paid by insurers jumped 23%, and premium income fell 9% (Polish Chamber of Insurance).
Why? Because growth comes mainly from services, while trade credit insurers are heavily exposed to declining industrial sectors.
Meanwhile, the only reason the market looked strong in previous years was inflation boosting nominal turnover — and thus premium volume.
Loss Ratios Climbing Toward a Breaking Point
Pre-pandemic loss ratios in trade credit insurance hovered around 50%. During the pandemic — against expectations — they collapsed to just 16%, thanks to government stimulus and liquidity shields.
Now they have shot back to 50% and — according to Marsh Poland — could exceed 60% in 2025, a red-alert threshold that usually triggers market hardening.
“We may soon pass the 60% loss ratio mark, which means insurers will tighten limits, raise premiums and restrict coverage for higher-risk sectors such as transport, construction and furniture,” warns Olczak.
Short-Term Outlook: Expect Tighter Conditions
Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index shows that global commercial insurance rates fell by 4% in Q2 2025 — the fourth consecutive quarter of price declines.
However, in Europe this softening is beginning to stall.
Geopolitical uncertainty — tariffs, deglobalization, and cross-border conflicts — is fueling underwriting caution.
Insurers are preparing to defend profitability. Clients should prepare for stricter limits, tougher risk assessment and less negotiation room in 2026.
