Allianz Trade expects global business insolvencies to increase by +6% in 2025 and a further +5% in 2026, before declining only marginally in 2027 (-1%). Despite political focus on tariffs, their real impact on bankruptcies will only materialize with a delay — mainly from 2026 onward. Meanwhile, technology and AI-driven entrepreneurship could paradoxically fuel even more insolvencies, especially in the United States and Europe.
Global outlook: 5th consecutive year of rising failures ahead
According to the insurer’s latest report:
- Global insolvencies will hit a multi-year high by end-2025 (+6% y/y)
- Peak expected in 2026 — fifth straight year of growth (+5% y/y)
- First slight decline forecast for 2027 — but from an objectively very high level (-1%)
- The delayed impact of US tariffs (reaching an effective 14% rate by end-2025) increases the risk of a “second insolvency wave” in 2026
- A technology and AI boom could accelerate failures, especially among overvalued or undercapitalized entrants
Poland: insolvencies driven by structural SME fragility — not global trade shocks
In Poland, insolvencies are climbing across all sectors — construction leads with +30% y/y, but the services sector accounts for 36% of all failures.
Allianz Trade forecasts:
- +14% rise in insolvencies in Poland in 2025
- +5% additional increase in 2026
Despite decent macro fundamentals (EU KPO funds, infrastructure rebound), SMEs are structurally exposed to high labour and energy costs — and soon possibly higher effective taxation.
Why Poland was excluded from Allianz’s global comparison chart?
“Because Poland no longer fits on the scale — insolvencies were up +427% by end-2024 versus the 2016–2019 average,” explains Sławomir Bąk, Board Member at Allianz Trade Poland.
While large bankruptcies remain rare, the Polish SME system is increasingly destabilized by abusive use of simplified restructuring procedures, which now account for over 90% of insolvency cases — often shielding debtors at the expense of other SMEs.
Only 1/3 of these restructurings even reach court approval, and very few are successfully completed — effectively turning the system into a hidden domino mechanism.
Tariffs: muted impact so far — but delayed shock possible
Trump-era import tariffs, climbing to 14% average effective rate, have so far had limited immediate impact, thanks to foreign exporters absorbing price shocks and rerouting goods via India or Vietnam.
But the risk is building — especially for export-based economies.
Worst-case scenario for 2026:
- +1,900 insolvencies in Canada
- +6,000 in France
- +2,900 in Spain
- +700 in the Netherlands
Germany, Italy, Belgium and the UK are considered less exposed — due to more diversified export bases and stronger corporate balance sheets.
AI & tech boom could trigger a second wave of failures
Between 2021 and 2024, the number of new business registrations rose sharply:
- +9% in Europe
- +36% in the US
But many of these new firms are fragile — especially in gig, digital and AI-driven sectors.
“A post-AI boom correction — similar to the dotcom crash — could add 4,500 insolvencies in the US, 4,000 in Germany, 1,000 in France and 1,100 in the UK,” warns Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Conclusion:
The world is heading toward at least two more difficult years (2025–2026) in terms of business failures. 2027 is expected to be the first year of global stabilization — but only if financial conditions do not tighten further and the AI boom does not burst too violently.
