The global number of new cancer cases could rise by 66.7% by 2050, reaching nearly 35 million, according to projections from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In Europe, the increase is expected to be smaller but still substantial: about 19.2%, to roughly 5.16 million cases. Experts say ageing populations will be the main driver, while lifestyle factors are also increasing the risk of several cancers.
Dr Paweł Koczkodaj of Poland’s Maria Skłodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology told Newseria that the projections should be treated as a warning for European healthcare systems. A larger and older population will require greater capacity for prevention, diagnostics and treatment.
Ageing remains the strongest risk factor
IARC data cited by Newseria indicate that Europe recorded about 4.33 million new cancer cases in 2024. By 2050, that figure is projected to rise by approximately 833,000 to 5.16 million.
Age is one of the strongest risk factors for cancer. The World Health Organization notes that cancer incidence rises sharply with age, partly because exposure to risk factors accumulates over time and cellular repair mechanisms become less effective.
This is particularly important for Europe and Poland, where demographic ageing is accelerating. Koczkodaj describes the trend as a “silver tsunami”: a growing share of older people will mechanically increase the number of cancer diagnoses even without a dramatic change in individual risk.
Some cancers are appearing more often in younger adults
Ageing does not explain every trend. Colorectal cancer, for example, is increasingly discussed in connection with diagnoses among younger adults. In Europe, the number of colorectal cancer cases is projected to rise from about 328,500 in 2024 to around 417,700 in 2050.
Experts point to modifiable risk factors including excess body weight, obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking and diets high in processed and red meat. Highly processed diets and low intake of fibre are also part of the broader discussion about colorectal cancer risk.
Early-stage colorectal cancer may cause few or no symptoms. When symptoms do occur, WHO lists persistent changes in bowel habits, blood in the stool, abdominal pain or bloating, unexplained weight loss, fatigue and anaemia among warning signs that require medical assessment.
Poland recorded nearly 193,000 malignant cancers in 2023
According to the latest figures cited from Poland’s National Cancer Registry, 192,922 malignant cancers were diagnosed in the country in 2023 — 96,925 in men and 95,997 in women.
Among men, prostate cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed malignancy, followed by lung and colorectal cancer. Among women, breast cancer ranks first, followed by lung and colorectal cancer. Poland recorded 23,710 prostate cancer diagnoses in 2023, up from around 21,500 a year earlier and just over 18,000 two years earlier.
Breast cancer remains the leading cancer among women. Poland recorded about 21,700 cases in 2023. WHO estimates that 2.4 million women worldwide were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2024 and around 694,000 died from the disease.
Prevention and health education will become more important
Not every cancer can be prevented. For breast cancer, for example, WHO notes that many cases occur in women without an identifiable modifiable risk factor beyond sex and age. This makes secondary prevention, including mammography for eligible women, especially important.
For other cancers, reducing tobacco exposure, alcohol consumption, obesity and unhealthy dietary patterns can lower risk at population level. Koczkodaj argues that health education should become a natural part of school curricula so that prevention starts long before chronic disease becomes an immediate concern.
The projected increase in cancer cases is therefore not only an oncology issue. It is also a demographic, educational and public-health challenge that will affect the capacity and financing of European healthcare systems for decades.
Sources: International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC); World Health Organization; Poland’s National Cancer Registry; Newseria.
