Donald Trump has toughened his messaging toward Iran, publicly suggesting that Tehran has no more than 10–15 days to reach an agreement on its nuclear program. A lack of progress, he said, would be “unfortunate” for Iran and could lead to “really bad things” — according to media accounts, the remarks were made while speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One. In parallel, the United States is reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East. Reports point to the build-up of a broad force package, including two aircraft carriers, which on the one hand serves as a communicative “show of force,” and on the other increases operational flexibility. The scale and composition of the deployment matter because they suggest the capability for operations with greater reach and a longer time horizon, rather than a purely symbolic move. Media coverage has highlighted, among other assets, aerial refueling tankers (KC-46 and KC-135), transport aircraft (C-130J), airborne early warning platforms (E-3 Sentry), and reconnaissance systems — together forming the backbone for either a more intensive multi-day campaign or a more limited strike.
Oil is holding near six-month highs. Brent is trading at USD 71.80 per barrel (+0.5%) and WTI at USD 66.45 (+0.9%), bringing the market closer to its first weekly gain in three weeks. The key sensitivity point remains the Persian Gulf region, especially concerns about the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which around 20% of global seaborne oil supplies pass. Even the mere possibility of restrictions in this corridor, without any actual disruption materializing, can significantly lift the “fear premium” and volatility. Adding to the heat are reports of planned Iranian naval exercises with Russia, which the market interprets as an escalation signal, though they do not in themselves determine whether any real удар to physical supply will occur.
Prices have also been supported by short-term signals from the U.S. balance. Crude inventories fell by roughly 9 million barrels amid higher refinery runs and rising exports, temporarily reinforcing the impression of a tightening market. At the same time, the potential for further gains is constrained by macroeconomic and supply-side factors that come into view over the medium term. The Fed minutes have sustained concerns that U.S. interest rates may remain at current levels for some time, which tends to cool demand expectations. In parallel, investors are pricing in the possibility of higher OPEC+ output from April, strengthening the narrative of “ample supply” in the background. In that spirit, JPMorgan points out that the supply surplus seen in the second half of 2025 persisted into January and will “likely” continue. According to the bank, to prevent inventories from building in 2027, additional cuts of around 2 million barrels per day would be required. As a result, the current price upswing appears driven primarily by a geopolitical premium and short-term U.S. market data, while fundamentals still point to oversupply — which, absent a material disruption to flows, may limit the durability of the upward trend.
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Source: ceo.com.pl (article: “Ultimatum Trumpa dla Teheranu i pokaz siły USA. Ropa na 6-miesięcznych maksimach”)
