The decision of the Monetary Policy Council to lower the National Bank of Poland’s interest rates to 3.75% coincided with events that quickly increased uncertainty in the global economy. The military intervention by the United States and Israel in Iran, and Tehran’s response, triggered sharp fluctuations in the energy commodities market, particularly in oil and natural gas.
Although the scale of price increases has not reached the levels observed during the first months of the war in Ukraine, the very occurrence of a sudden supply shock demonstrates how strongly geopolitical developments can affect the economies of energy-importing countries, including Poland.
A broader macroeconomic impact
For Polish businesses, the key issue in this context is not only the direct increase in energy costs but also the broader macroeconomic impact. Higher commodity prices may increase inflationary pressure in the coming months, influence the exchange rate of the Polish zloty, and alter expectations regarding monetary policy.
In such circumstances, decisions made by the central bank become particularly challenging. On one hand, relatively low inflation creates room for further monetary easing. On the other hand, rising energy prices could quickly shift this balance.
From the perspective of businesses, this means operating in an environment of increased volatility. High oil and gas prices directly affect production and transportation costs, but they also indirectly influence consumer demand. If cost pressures persist for longer, households may limit spending on less essential goods and services. As a result, companies across many sectors may face rising operating costs while simultaneously experiencing weaker demand.
Uncertainty on global markets
The exchange rate also remains an important factor. Rising energy commodity prices increase Poland’s import bill, naturally putting pressure on the zloty to weaken. At the same time, greater uncertainty in global markets may lead to capital outflows from emerging markets.
On the other hand, a stabilizing factor this year is the expected significant inflow of European Union funds, which could limit fluctuations in the domestic currency and act as a buffer for the economy.
In such conditions, the ability to manage liquidity and respond flexibly to changes in the economic environment becomes crucial for businesses. Periods of heightened uncertainty usually encourage companies to make more cautious investment decisions, although investment prospects in Poland remain relatively solid precisely thanks to European funding.
At the same time, the increasing volatility of energy prices and exchange rates is a reminder that the financial stability of companies increasingly depends on effective cash-flow management and access to working capital.
The coming weeks will show whether tensions in the Middle East prove to be a short-lived episode or develop into a longer period of elevated uncertainty in commodity markets. For the Polish economy and domestic businesses, the key question will be how long cost pressures persist and whether they influence further monetary policy decisions.
In this sense, events occurring thousands of kilometers away once again demonstrate how strongly global interdependencies shape the conditions for doing business in Poland.
