Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf region are once again causing concern in energy commodity markets. Increasing gas prices are a natural reaction to the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East, including from Qatar, one of the world’s key exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG). For owners of commercial real estate in Poland, this is an important warning signal, although the market is responding relatively calmly. It is also worth noting that the heating season is coming to an end, which naturally reduces current demand. Nevertheless, the geopolitical situation serves as a reminder of the need to continuously monitor energy costs.
Experience instead of nervous reactions
Today, property owners have significantly more experience in crisis management and well-established procurement procedures. The market has in some sense become accustomed to the pattern in which sharp price increases are often followed by a phase of correction and stabilization, as illustrated by last year’s episode of the so-called “12-day war.”
Everyone is observing the situation closely, but no one is making rash decisions. The market has already been tested for resilience, including during last year’s 12-day escalation in the Middle East, when prices surged only to return to stability shortly afterwards. For now, wholesale market data show that the annual contract for gas delivery in Poland for 2027 increased by 16% within two days. This is relatively modest when compared with the movement of the TTF index in the Netherlands, which serves as the European benchmark for gas prices and rose by around 80% during the same period.
Price pressure is more visible in short-term contracts for 2026. However, in the commercial real estate market it is standard practice to contract energy supplies in advance—most often one or two years ahead. As a result, most property owners currently have their operating budgets secured, and any potential impact of rising prices is largely deferred. The timing is also favorable, as the end of the heating season means lower gas consumption. This creates room for calm analysis and planning of future energy purchases,” comments Zuzanna Paciorkiewicz.
Gas remains a barometer of risk
Although the current situation has not triggered panic, the market is closely monitoring European gas storage levels and the pace at which reserves are being rebuilt ahead of the next winter season. If instability persists, cost pressure may return with the start of the next heating period. The medium-term outlook will depend on several factors, including geopolitical developments, the ability to diversify supply sources, and the reactions of financial markets.
The current situation once again highlights the importance of energy efficiency. Buildings that have invested in renewable energy, modern building management systems (BMS), and optimized energy consumption over recent years are now significantly reducing their exposure to fluctuations in energy prices. Energy efficiency is no longer merely an element of ESG strategy—it has become a tangible tool for managing cost risks. Owners who have invested in green solutions are seeing a clear difference in the stability of their operating budgets,” adds Paciorkiewicz.
Increasing regulatory requirements and tenant expectations are also strengthening the premium for modern, energy-efficient buildings.
