Natural gas is expected to serve as a bridge fuel between coal-based power generation and an energy system driven by renewables and nuclear. “Because of its flexibility and supply security, this fuel may stay with us for longer,” says Paweł Majewski from the SET Foundation. Today, gas consumption is rising and returning to pre-war levels, while Poland has achieved independence from Russian supplies.
According to data from Polskie Sieci Energetyczne (Polish Power Grid), by the end of 2024 Poland had nearly 6 GW (5,976 MW) of installed capacity in gas-fired power plants, up from 4.7 GW a year earlier. Over the next five years, this figure is expected to double. A report from the Forum Energii shows that last year electricity generation from natural gas reached a record high of 20 TWh, 23.5 percent more than in the previous year, accounting for over 12 percent of total electricity production. The increase was driven mainly by new gas units in Gryfino.
“The role of gas in energy generation is transitional, but significant, and I believe natural gas will remain with us in the long term. Demand for natural gas in Poland’s power sector is forecast to rise by around 50 percent compared to current levels during the 2030s. Later, in the 2040s, with advances in storage technologies, renewable energy, and the expected development of nuclear power, consumption will likely return to today’s levels,” Majewski, a member of the SET Foundation’s council and former CEO of PGNiG, told Newseria.
Experts point out that Poland’s economy is slowly returning to pre-2022 levels of natural gas use, and consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years. The new National Energy and Climate Plan 2030 foresees peak demand between 2025 and 2030, followed by a 50 percent drop by 2040. In the power and heating sectors, demand is projected to fall from 8.6 billion to 3.3 billion cubic meters (under the WAM scenario – “with additional measures” reflecting climate and energy policies). Still, Majewski believes gas will remain an important part of the mix.
“It is the perfect balancing fuel for weather-dependent renewables. Gas plants are very flexible – they can be switched on and off quickly – which makes me think natural gas will stay with us for longer,” he stressed.
The Forum Energii report “Energy Transformation in Poland. 2025 Edition” shows that last year Poland’s gas import dependency was estimated at 82 percent, up 2 percentage points from 2023. While Poland no longer imports from Russia, its main suppliers are Denmark (38 percent), the U.S. (22 percent), and Qatar (16 percent). In total, foreign deliveries – both pipeline and LNG – reached 16.8 billion cubic meters, while domestic gas consumption amounted to 19.4 billion cubic meters (high-methane equivalent).
“Gas availability is primarily about diversifying sources and supply routes. We have our own production in Poland – about 3.5 billion cubic meters annually, stable in recent years. We also benefit from growing concessions on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with supplies brought in via the Baltic Pipe. Finally, there is LNG, imported through the expanded Świnoujście terminal and the planned floating FSRU terminal in the Gulf of Gdańsk. Each of these sources can provide around 30 percent of Poland’s energy sector demand,” Majewski assessed.
The floating LNG terminal (FSRU – Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) is a strategic project for Poland and the region. It will be permanently moored in the southern part of the Gulf of Gdańsk, near the Port of Gdańsk, with the capacity to receive, store, and regasify over 6 billion cubic meters annually. The investment involves building a dedicated quay, a subsea pipeline, and nearly 250 kilometers of new onshore transmission pipelines. Commissioning is planned for 2027–2028.
In 2024, one-third of gas consumption went to electricity and heat production. The largest consumers of natural gas in Poland are industry (31 percent) and households (27 percent).
“District heating cannot be overlooked. In Poland’s climate, something must be burned to power the heating system. As we move away from coal, the natural successor is gas, supplemented by biomass in smaller installations. Investments in gas boilers and gas-fired district heating plants are therefore particularly important,” Majewski emphasized.
