Fuel prices for gasoline, diesel, and autogas are expected to stay at July levels throughout August, according to a market expert from Reflex. Prices tend to be higher at premium stations—those offering richer additional services, loyalty program promotions, and located in regions where fuel traditionally costs more due to factors like higher purchasing power. Differences can reach several dozen groszy (Polish cents) per liter. The fluctuations around these values largely depend on the global situation, with particular attention paid to developments in the Middle East and Ukraine.
“August should not bring any unpleasant surprises for drivers. Fuel prices are expected to remain close to those observed at the end of July,” says Urszula Cieślak, Director of Forecasting and Analysis at Reflex, in an interview with Newseria news agency. “Of course, there will be price disparities between different stations and locations. Across regions and the entire country, we can expect differences reaching up to several dozen groszy per liter. These stem from the station’s location, wholesale offers available to station operators, and the station type itself. At premium stations—which provide a wide range of additional services alongside fuel, including dining options—prices are always higher. Conversely, at independent stations, in smaller locations, or those with many self-service or supermarket-linked outlets, prices are often below the national average.”
As of July 31, the average price of 95-octane gasoline at Polish gas stations was 5.89 PLN per liter; for 98-octane gasoline, it was 6.67 PLN. Diesel cost an average of 6.05 PLN per liter, and autogas was priced at 2.71 PLN per liter. Price differences between regions can reach up to twenty or more groszy per liter. Midway through the summer holiday season, the cheapest fuel was found in the Pomeranian, Lubusz, and Łódź provinces, while the highest prices prevailed in Mazovia, West Pomerania, Podlasie, and Opole regions.
“Domestic fuel prices are determined by global market conditions. What sets the price of crude oil today is geopolitical and economic factors,” explains Urszula Cieślak. “Among geopolitical influences, the situation in the Middle East remains significant. Although tensions have eased somewhat compared to the second half of June, geopolitical tensions in the region still do not exclude the possibility of further escalation. We must also remember the war in Ukraine. Recent threats by former President Trump against countries buying Russian oil will also impact the domestic market by pushing crude oil prices upward.”
The expert explains that imposing a 100% tariff would force countries currently purchasing Russian oil to seek supplies from other regions, such as the Middle East, causing shifts in supply and demand and potentially driving up raw material prices. Even if fuel station prices do not rise immediately, this trend will hinder price decreases. On the other hand, Russia’s recent two-month ban on exporting gasoline to external markets is unlikely to affect fuel prices in Poland significantly, as the country is currently almost independent of imported finished gasoline and relies on domestic production. Moreover, two months is too short a period for the ban to impact supply-demand dynamics in the market.
Currently, West Texas Intermediate crude oil is priced around $65 per barrel on the global market, while the pricier European Brent crude trades at approximately $67.60 per barrel. These prices are lower than in June when a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel caused spikes—though even then, prices did not reach record highs but exceeded $75 per barrel in both benchmarks. Recently, OPEC announced plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August and September, which has had only a slight downward effect on crude prices.
On the local front, summer promotional offers at select fuel station networks may influence lower fuel prices.
“We can expect to enjoy lower fuel prices until the end of the holiday season. Depending on the entity and loyalty programs at particular chains, fuel bills can be up to forty or more groszy per liter lower,” informs Urszula Cieślak. “The flip side of these promotions is that stations unable to offer loyalty program discounts provide lower prices to all customers, whereas loyalty discounts are available only to those with the app or card. Therefore, one might say that while for two to three days a week we can take advantage of promotional prices, on other days at certain stations, drivers pay slightly more for fuel.”
