Over the past week, drivers have experienced another drop in fuel prices. Gasoline has become 4 groszy per liter cheaper, while diesel prices have decreased by 3 groszy per liter. This trend results from global changes in the oil market, which may continue to influence prices in the coming weeks.
Between February 21 and February 28, 2025, crude oil prices fell by $1.5 per barrel. The following Monday saw a further drop of $1.2, bringing the commodity’s price to its lowest level in three months. This sharp market reaction came after OPEC+ officially confirmed its plan to increase production for the first time since 2022.
According to the new OPEC+ decision, oil production will gradually increase by approximately 138,000 barrels per day starting in April. However, the organization has stated that the pace of production growth may be flexible and adjusted to market conditions to maintain price stability.
This decision was made amid increasing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who once again called for lower oil prices. Trump is pressuring Saudi Arabia and its allies to boost oil supply, while his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iranian exports may create opportunities for other OPEC+ members to capture a larger market share.
The OPEC+ decision highlights the organization’s challenge in facing growing competition. The United States—the largest oil producer with high extraction costs—along with Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, are ramping up production at a pace exceeding global demand growth. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), despite existing production restrictions, the global supply surplus currently stands at 450,000 barrels per day.
Another factor contributing to market uncertainty is the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as the risk of a global trade war. In response to these evolving conditions, OPEC+ is planning a gradual withdrawal of current production cuts. By September 2026, the reduction could be lowered by 2.2 million barrels per day.
In the coming days, gasoline and diesel prices may continue to fluctuate slightly, with expected changes of around 2-3 groszy per liter in either direction. For logistics companies, this means the necessity of continuously monitoring the market and strategically planning fuel purchases to optimize operational costs.
Will the downward trend persist in the long term? That depends on the market’s reaction to OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical developments, and the overall condition of the global economy. One thing is certain—the coming months will bring further dynamic changes in the oil market.
Commentary provided by Marcin Wawrzkiewicz, Country Manager at Malcom Finance in Poland.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/ceny-paliw-spadaja-efekt-decyzji-opec-i-zmian-na-rynku-ropy-79828
