Over the past week, prices of 95-octane gasoline and diesel have fallen, each decreasing by 4 groszy per liter. As a result, the price has dropped below the symbolic threshold of 6 PLN per liter.
The price of Brent crude oil on the Rotterdam exchange dropped by $4.50 per barrel, marking a significant turning point — falling below $65 per barrel for the first time since February 2021.
On Saturday, eight oil producers from the OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June. This decision came just a month after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing an identical production increase for May. The June output boost is nearly three times higher than the 140,000 barrels per day initially forecast by Goldman Sachs. Together, these moves mean that OPEC+ will add over 800,000 barrels per day of additional supply to the market in just two months.
April saw the largest monthly drop in oil prices since 2021. The price decline has been fueled by concerns over a potential recession, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs — a move that could reduce oil demand — just as OPEC+ rapidly increases supply.
“Our core view remains that high spare production capacity and heightened recession risk skew the risk for oil prices to the downside, despite relatively tight current market conditions,” wrote Daan Struyven, Head of Oil Market Research at Goldman Sachs, in a Sunday client report. The investment bank has lowered its forecast for U.S. crude oil prices this year by $3, bringing the expected average down to $56 per barrel — in line with Brent crude prices at around $56.
Fuel prices are expected to stabilize in the near term, with a potential further decline of 3–5 groszy per liter. The key factor influencing future price trends remains the global oil market.
Commentary by Marcin Wawrzkiewicz, Country Manager at Malcom Finance Poland
Source: ceo.com.pl
