A new exclusive Allianz Trade study, which analyzed the impact of the ongoing trade war in the U.S. before and after “Liberation Day” on April 2, highlights the challenges facing 4,500 exporters across nine major economies responsible for nearly 60% of global GDP. The findings reveal a sharp rise in uncertainty and operational adjustments as businesses navigate geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics.
Trade War Fallout: Global Concern and Strategic Realignment
The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policy has increased volatility among global enterprises. According to the Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025, conducted in two phases (before and after April 2), exporters from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK, and the U.S. report significantly lower growth expectations, higher concerns about late payments, and widespread risk mitigation strategies.
Nearly 60% of companies expect the trade war to negatively impact their operations, and 45% anticipate a decline in export volumes. One in four companies is considering temporarily halting production due to the combined effects of tariffs and currency volatility, especially in sectors dependent on imported intermediate goods.
Polish Exporters Among the Most Concerned in Europe
Although the U.S. is only Poland’s eighth-largest export destination, Polish exporters are the most concerned in Europe. 58% of surveyed Polish companies foresee negative trade war consequences, compared to 47% in other European nations. Additionally, 51% of Polish businesses expect a drop in export revenues.
Sławomir Bąk, Board Member of Allianz Trade Poland, highlights Polish firms’ concerns about their weak negotiating position. Many sell unbranded components rather than high-margin, proprietary products, making them more easily replaceable. Poland’s relatively low production costs are no longer a key competitive edge in a tariff-heavy environment.
Adaptation Through Diversification and Cost Control
Most exporters are responding by transferring costs, diversifying supply chains, and identifying alternative shipping routes. Temporary relief measures have spurred a “frontloading” trend — 86% of U.S. firms accelerated deliveries from China and the EU ahead of tariff deadlines.
While 54% of U.S. firms plan to raise prices, only 25% of Polish exporters intend to do so. Instead, 64% of Polish firms aim to maintain current prices, focusing instead on sourcing cheaper supplies (45%) and entering new markets (30%).
Diversification is now a permanent strategy, with 54% citing geopolitical risk as a top supply chain threat. Over one-third have already entered new markets, and nearly two-thirds plan to do so soon.
Friendshoring, New Shipping Routes, and Shifting Alliances
Most companies now push logistical and tariff management responsibilities onto suppliers. U.S. firms continue to favor cost-insurance-freight (CIF) models. Meanwhile, 59% of global exporters prefer adding currency fluctuation clauses to contracts, with 57% of Polish firms supporting this approach.
Renegotiation trends reveal Polish firms lag slightly behind: only 68% renegotiate with suppliers versus 79% average, and 90% in France. Notably, 32% of Polish companies take no renegotiation steps, similar only to China (38%).
Decoupling U.S. and China: Latin America Emerges as a Winner
Post-April 2, intentions to export from the U.S. to East Asia halved to 10%, while Chinese exporters’ plans for North America dropped from 15% to 3%. American firms operating in China are turning to Western Europe and Latin America.
Polish firms target nearby markets, with Belarus (5%), Ukraine, Czechia, and Baltic nations among top picks. Though less prominent than China or Germany, Central and Eastern Europe shows growing strategic appeal.
Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia-Pacific and Trade at Allianz Trade, notes that despite reduced tariffs (from 103% to 39%), friendshoring will likely accelerate. Europe and Latin America now draw Chinese and European firms seeking lower-cost U.S. market access.
Payment Delays and Credit Risk on the Rise
Post-April 2, 25% of exporters expect payment terms to lengthen by 7+ days, and 48% foresee increased non-payment risk, especially in the U.S., Italy, and the UK.
Only 11% of firms still receive payment within 30 days. Around 70% are paid within 30–70 days, with the UK, France, and Italy showing slightly higher rates. Polish firms have improved: 43% now report 30–50 day payment cycles (vs. 32% reporting 70+ days last year).
Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, concludes: “Large companies increasingly act as de facto banks for smaller ones. With extended payment cycles and rising insolvency risk, exporters face pressure to shift costs, source new markets, and reassess global strategies.”
