Calm on the housing market is giving way to fear and time pressure. Although higher prices and rising inflation should, in theory, cool buyers’ enthusiasm, the opposite is happening. Poles are accelerating their purchasing decisions. Otodom experts note that in 2026, buyers are not so much fulfilling the dream of owning their own apartment as trying to escape the fear that soon they may no longer be able to afford one.
Key points:
Fear is stronger than optimism: The main driver of demand is not an improvement in Poles’ financial situation, but concern over further price increases and a potential decline in creditworthiness.
The trap of rising average prices: The increase in average asking prices is mainly the result of developers introducing new, more expensive projects to the market.
Experts advise caution: Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom, warns against making purchasing decisions in haste and under emotional pressure.
Buyers are watching the market, but they are not giving up
In the case of demand, the market is currently being shaped by many uncertainty factors. Rising inflation and the lack of prospects for interest rate cuts in the next six months mean that buyers are carefully observing the market. This does not mean, however, that purchasing decisions will be put on hold.
According to Otodom forecasts, the number of transactions on the primary market should increase slightly in the second and third quarters. In May, sales across the seven largest markets may clearly exceed the April result of 4,100 units.
“It would be a mistake, however, to think that these forecasts are based on optimism on the demand side. The strongest catalyst for sales growth in the coming months will be fear. It is the fear of rising prices — the belief that if I do not buy an apartment now, it will be more expensive soon. Added to this is concern about deteriorating mortgage conditions, which is prompting some buyers to finalize transactions as quickly as possible. That is why we assume that sales in the coming months will be at least as strong as the average recorded in March and April,” explains Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
Top three concerns on the housing market:
- Prices will rise instead of falling.
- Creditworthiness may decline.
- Interest rates may increase. For borrowers, stability may become the key factor.
Will developer apartment prices rise in 2026?
Everything indicates that new apartments from developers will become more expensive. Warsaw is one of the markets where prices have already begun rising at a double-digit pace. The April increase of 11.5% year on year may be a signal of the trend that could continue in the near future.
Regional capitals with double-digit year-on-year price growth per square metre in April 2026:
| Market | Price growth y/y |
|---|---|
| Olsztyn | +18.9% |
| Tricity | +13.4% |
| Warsaw | +11.5% |
“This does not mean, however, that the prices of individual apartments are rising month by month. What has increased is the average price of units offered for sale. In recent months, developers have replenished their offer with more expensive projects, while customers have remained ready to buy cheaper apartments. This combination creates the effect of rising prices. It is therefore not the case that a new unit that cost PLN 16,000 per square metre a month ago now costs PLN 17,000 per square metre,” explains Otodom’s Head of Market Research.
When is the best time to buy an apartment?
The current situation is favourable for buyers in terms of choice. Across the seven largest markets, around 60,000 new apartments are currently on offer. In April alone, developers introduced 4,300 units for sale, 19% more than in March and 24% more than a year earlier.
The available pool is also being supplemented by properties that had previously been reserved but have now returned to the market. For this reason, Otodom experts advise buyers to remain calm.
“I warn against making very quick, fear-driven moves when buying apartments. Haste is not advisable in decisions of this kind,” says Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
Source: ManagerPlus.pl
