The recent uptick in European prices came as no surprise to investors, while Poland’s economy is growing faster than analysts had anticipated. Meanwhile, Australia has set a new employment record, despite an unchanged unemployment rate.
Inflation in Europe
While Tuesday’s inflation data from the U.S. drew more market attention, the eurozone also released figures—albeit in a fragmented manner typical for the bloc. This staggered reporting means individual releases have a limited impact on currency markets, which can be a stabilizing factor but makes life harder for analysts who rely on stronger, unified signals.
This week’s data came from Germany, Spain, and Slovakia. As expected, Germany’s annual inflation rate fell from 2.2% to 2.1%. Spain also reported a decline—from 2.3% to 2.2%. The only surprise came from Slovakia, where inflation dropped more than expected—from 4.0% not to the projected 3.8%, but to 3.7%. However, given Slovakia’s small weight in the eurozone, a bigger deviation would be needed to significantly influence markets. In general, data in line with expectations tends not to trigger volatility.
Better-than-Expected Growth in Poland
Preliminary data on Poland’s GDP surprised positively. Analysts had forecast 3.1% growth for Q1, but the actual figure came in at 3.2%. Although this is a decline from the previous 3.4%, the slowdown is milder than expected and therefore still good news.
This performance has buoyed the Polish złoty, with the euro exchange rate once again testing the 4.23 PLN level. In recent days, that threshold has consistently been under pressure, and the market has rarely dipped below it for long. This suggests that investors do not expect any surprises in the final stretch of Poland’s presidential campaign.
Australia’s Labor Market
Overnight data from Australia showed no change in the unemployment rate, but employment rose by a remarkable 89,000—its strongest gain since February 2024. For a country with a labor force of around 14.5 million people, this is a significant leap. Australia has now reached an all-time high in the number of employed persons.
It’s worth noting that Australia’s population is growing steadily, unlike Poland’s. Still, the markets initially reacted positively, with the Australian dollar strengthening on the release. However, the currency later gave up those gains.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
Source: CEO.com.pl – Inflation in Europe Meets Expectations, Poland’s GDP Positively Surprises
