The outbreak of war in Ukraine and the current geopolitical situation mean that the EU must enhance its security. Especially since a Russian attack on an EU country is not impossible. Assessments by NATO, Germany, Poland, Denmark, and the Baltic states indicate that Russia could be ready to launch an attack within three to ten years. “Europe’s priority should be to continue supporting Ukraine,” argues MEP Dariusz Joński.
“During Poland’s presidency, when we said it would be under the slogan ‘Security, Europe!’, many thought it was just another presidency motto. But this is the challenge that Europe faces. In short, Europe must rearm because the enemy is in the east and has no intention of stopping in Donbas but wants to go further,” emphasizes Dariusz Joński, an MEP from the Civic Coalition, in an interview with the Newseria agency.
Recently, the highest-ranking German military officer warned that Russia could be ready for a military attack on NATO countries within three to eight years. In February 2024, Estonian intelligence services indicated that the Kremlin is likely anticipating a conflict with NATO in the next decade. Meanwhile, Danish intelligence predicts that by 2030, a large-scale war triggered by Russia is possible. If NATO is perceived as internally weak, the attack could involve multiple countries simultaneously. Concerns are growing, especially in light of Russia’s approved budget plan for 2025–2027, which includes a 30% increase in military spending to 13.5 trillion rubles (approximately 140 billion euros).
“Europe has time, but not much, to simply defend itself. The European Commission’s plan to invest up to 800 billion euros in armaments—150 billion in loans and 650 billion in relaxed fiscal rules for each EU country to rearm—is very ambitious but feasible. We must act quickly,” says Dariusz Joński.
The European Commission has proposed a plan that could free up around 800 billion euros for defense spending over the next four years. The five-point plan, called ReArm Europe, aims to finance increased security expenditures. The plans include 150 billion euros in loans for member states to expand pan-European capabilities, such as air defense and ammunition, and the activation of a fiscal escape clause that would allow countries to increase defense spending without triggering excessive deficit procedures.
According to EC data, if member states used this clause to increase defense spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP over four years, it would generate nearly 650 billion euros for defense. The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) estimates that in 2024, the 27 EU member states spent approximately 326 billion euros on defense, representing 1.9% of their GDP.
“EU countries can allocate up to 20% of the funds they receive for arming Ukraine. This is very important. They can, but are not obliged to, yet it shows that Ukraine can also benefit from joint purchases and funds borrowed by the European Commission. For Poland, it is crucial to keep the enemy as far from the Polish border as possible, and to achieve that, we must help Ukraine,” says the MEP.
The Bruegel think tank assesses that Europe’s priority is to continue supporting Ukraine—its experienced military is currently the most effective deterrent against a Russian attack on the EU. Europe can also fully replace the U.S. Since February 2022, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has amounted to 64 billion euros, while Europe, including the UK, has spent 62 billion euros. In 2024, U.S. military aid amounted to 20 billion euros out of a total of 42 billion euros. To replace the U.S., the EU would need to spend an additional 0.12% of its GDP.
The increase in defense spending is crucial, especially given the current geopolitical situation and the U.S.’s plans to end the war in Ukraine.
“Nobody knows why the U.S. administration is seeking alliances with Russia while looking skeptically at Europe. For the first time, we see a shift in American diplomacy. Our task is not only to rearm Europe as a strong insurance policy within the EU but also to convince others that Putin is not a man to be trusted. Our experience with Russia has shown us that what was said three years ago has nothing to do with what actually happened. We hope for peace, but that peace cannot mean Ukraine’s capitulation,” concludes Dariusz Joński.
