In many countries across Europe and the Mediterranean basin, this year’s summer once again brought waves of extreme heat with record-breaking temperatures. While July and August in Poland were not particularly hot, this does not signal an end to the negative trend of rising global temperatures. Europe, especially its Central and Eastern regions, is among the fastest-warming areas in the world, with serious economic, social, and health consequences.
In July 2024, the global average temperature was 1.25°C higher than in the pre-industrial period (1850–1900). According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Bulletin, it was the third-warmest July on record globally and the fourth-warmest in Europe. In Poland, July was classified as “normal,” with an average air temperature of 18.9°C – only 0.1°C above the 1991–2020 long-term average for this month.
“July may not have been hot by today’s standards, but it resembled the classic Polish summers of 30–40 years ago,” said Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak, atmospheric physicist, climate change expert, and member of the Climate Council at UN Global Compact Network Poland, in an interview with Newseria. “However, with increasingly frequent heatwaves, we expect our summers to become as hot as those on Mediterranean beaches. Extreme weather events have not spared us, highlighting how climate is a truly global issue. For example, Genoa lows originate from the Mediterranean, which was anomalously warm this summer.”
In Poland, the warmest region was Podkarpacie, with an average of 19.5°C, while the coldest was the Sudetes at 17.5°C. Overall, July 2024 was the coolest since 2020, and 3.1°C cooler than the hottest July recorded in 2006.
“The fact that July was relatively mild in Poland doesn’t mean extremes weren’t recorded elsewhere. Poland makes up just 0.06% of Earth’s surface,” explained Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak.
On July 25, in Silopi, Turkey, the air temperature exceeded 50°C for the first time in history.
“It’s important to note that meteorological temperatures are measured in the shade, in a standardized shelter two meters above the ground, meaning the felt temperature was much higher than 50°C,” the expert stressed. “Meanwhile, in Scandinavia, Norway and Denmark saw half a month with daily highs above 30°C. The world is drowning in climate records – this is the sign of our times.”
According to the updated C3S Global Temperature Trend Monitor, which uses five-year averages, if the current 30-year warming trend continues, global warming could reach 1.5°C by May 2029. In July 2024, the estimated rise stood at 1.4°C.
“2024 was the first year we crossed the symbolic 1.5°C threshold compared to pre-industrial times. Just ten years ago, during the Paris Climate Conference, the world committed to fighting to stay below this level. Now we see it has already been exceeded,” said Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak. “The 1.5°C limit is not safe, healthy, or economically and socially stable. The hope is that we can still prevent warming from surpassing 2°C.”
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will be warmer than the record-breaking 2024. There is also a 70% probability that the five-year global average will exceed 1.5°C above historical levels.
“Poland is warming faster than the global average. We have already recorded a rise of about 2–2.4°C compared to pre-industrial times, meaning our region is heating up more quickly,” explained the climate expert. “Currently, Poland’s climate resembles that of 19th-century Hungary. Predictions show warming could reach 4°C by the end of this century – or even 5°C if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current pace. The outcome depends on our decarbonization path.”
According to ERA5 Copernicus Climate Change Service data, Europe is the fastest-warming continent outside the Arctic. Since the mid-1990s, temperatures have increased by about 0.53°C per decade, compared to the global average of 0.26°C and 0.69°C in the Arctic. Contributing factors include shifting weather patterns, atmospheric circulation changes favoring more frequent and intense heatwaves, declining aerosol pollution (allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface), and Europe’s geographic proximity to the rapidly warming Arctic. Central and Eastern Europe, along with the Middle East, follow closely behind in warming rates.
“Climate models underestimated the pace of current changes. Natural systems are more complex and chaotic than models can fully capture. We are warming faster than many predictions suggested,” said Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak.
She emphasized the threefold impact of climate change: social, economic, and health.
“Socially, we see rising migration from areas that are becoming too hot and dry to sustain life,” she noted. “Economically, climate change is already costly. In Poland, we don’t yet feel the full effects thanks to subsidies, but agriculture is suffering from floods and droughts, leading to declining yields and annual financial losses in the billions of złotys.”
A report by Allianz Trade highlights the economic toll of extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires. Estimated GDP losses linked to summer heatwaves range from 0.1 percentage points in Germany and 0.3 in France to as much as 1.2 in Italy and 1.4 in Spain, with Europe-wide losses averaging 0.5 points. For comparison, the U.S. average is 0.6 and China’s is 1 point. Analysts stress that one day of extreme heat (above 32°C) has an economic impact equivalent to half a day of nationwide strikes.
