The European Union expects its new trade agreement with Mexico to create additional export opportunities for European companies, including food producers and manufacturers of machinery and vehicles. However, MEP Waldemar Buda argues that Poland has limited scope to benefit from the new market. In his view, opening the EU market could instead increase competitive pressure on European producers.
“From an agricultural perspective, the agreement with Mexico will not be as significant as the European Union’s agreement with Mercosur. Although South and Central America are geographically close, their economies are completely different,” Waldemar Buda, a Member of the European Parliament from the ECR Group, told the Newseria news agency.
On 22 May, during a summit in Mexico City, the European Union and Mexico signed the Modernised Global Agreement (MGA) and an Interim Trade Agreement (ITA). On 14 July, the Council of the EU formally approved the conclusion of the ITA, following the European Parliament’s consent on 8 July.
The full entry into force of the MGA still requires ratification by all EU member states. The new agreements replace the existing framework dating back to 2000 and reflect the development of bilateral relations towards a comprehensive strategic partnership. They are intended to strengthen political dialogue, deepen cooperation and promote sustainable trade and investment between the two sides.
From the EU’s perspective, one of the main objectives is to make it easier for European companies to access the Mexican market. Under the new trade agreement, high tariffs on key EU exports will be removed, particularly for agri-food products.
The Council of the EU expects the agreement to improve market conditions in sectors including machinery, pharmaceuticals and transport equipment. It also expands cooperation on critical raw materials.
More than 45,000 EU companies exporting to Mexico are expected to benefit from the agreement, the majority of them small and medium-sized enterprises.
The scale of the opportunity is illustrated by existing trade flows. According to Council of the EU data, trade between the European Union and Mexico exceeded €86 billion in 2025, with around €53 billion accounted for by exports and nearly €34 billion by imports.
The EU was Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, after the United States and China, and its second-largest export market.
Over the past decade, EU-Mexico trade has increased by more than 75%. Exports rose somewhat faster, by 92%, while imports increased by 66%. The main categories of traded goods include machinery and equipment, transport equipment, chemicals, fuels and mining products.
The European Commission stresses that the agreement forms part of a broader EU strategy aimed at diversifying the Union’s global trade relationships. Buda, however, points to the risks associated with this approach.
“What worries me is that there is still no break with the German way of thinking that says: let us sign agreements with everyone, everywhere, because globalisation will bring prosperity. Unfortunately, I believe that era is over, and we should focus on independence, self-sufficiency, security and resilience. Recent years have shown one thing very clearly: even relatively small conflicts or a pandemic can disrupt supply chains,” Buda said.
“By trading with the entire world, we create a situation in which a conflict somewhere may mean that something does not arrive, shortages emerge and the entire supply chain comes to a halt.”
In 2024, the value of EU trade in goods reached almost €5 trillion. Exports totalled €2.53 trillion, while imports amounted to €2.42 trillion.
The European Union accounted for 13.4% of global trade in goods. According to figures published by the Council of the EU, this placed the bloc behind China, with 15.4%, but slightly ahead of the United States, with 13.3%.
“There is nothing particularly important that we need to import from Mexico, while replacing products already manufactured here will reduce production within the European Union,” the ECR MEP argued.
“Mexico can expand its production and trade in goods that are already made in Europe and are not in short supply here. The natural consequence is that Mexican producers will begin displacing companies that currently manufacture these products in Europe.”
According to Buda, Mexico’s large population and capacity to produce basic goods could also create competition in categories that Europe currently produces successfully.
“Mexico, as a highly populated country capable of producing basic goods, could also flood Europe with products we may not even expect, including goods Europe currently produces effectively, supporting jobs and business growth here. We have already seen examples involving Brazil, which is prepared to start manufacturing products it has not traditionally produced in order to sell them into the European Union. This is a long-term risk.”
The politician argues that the main beneficiary of the agreement will be the automotive industry, particularly German manufacturers.
“If Mexico had resources or products that we lack, then we could discuss opening the market selectively. But that is not the case. The whole logic of this agreement is that German industry, being pushed out of Asia by Chinese competition, is looking for new markets and new locations for cooperation around the world,” Buda said.
“If Mexico opens its market to German industry, then we have to open our market to everything else. The consequences affect agriculture as well as other manufacturing sectors that are currently strong in Europe.”
More than 30% of vehicles manufactured in the European Union are exported to international markets every year. Those exports generate a trade surplus of around €100 billion, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
Representatives of the organisation believe that modernising the EU-Mexico free trade agreement will provide significant benefits to the European automotive industry by updating rules of origin requirements and removing technical barriers to trade in the sector.
“I can see that finding markets like this is strongly supported by Germany and by the European Union as a whole. However, I would be very cautious. I would focus on products that are genuinely in short supply within the EU rather than using such agreements to create additional competition for the European economy,” the ECR MEP said.
Experts from the Polish government’s Trade.gov.pl portal point out that, from Poland’s perspective, the agreement could create new export opportunities in the future.
The greatest potential may lie in the agri-food sector, including processed products and selected categories of high-quality food.
Polish exports of agri-food products reached €24.1 billion, or around PLN 102 billion, in the first five months of 2026, an increase of 1.6% compared with the same period of 2025.
Experts stress, however, that access to the Mexican market will depend on detailed tariff arrangements as well as sanitary and phytosanitary requirements.
They identify high market-entry costs, strong competition from Mexican and U.S. companies, and relatively low awareness of Polish brands and products as the main challenges facing Polish exporters.
“In Poland, we have relatively few products that we can export successfully. As a result, the balance for us is that we will either lose out in agriculture or the agreement will be neutral. From an export perspective, there is very little we can gain,” Buda said.
“Previous trade agreements have already demonstrated this. We simply do not have many products that can easily generate strong demand in other parts of the world.”
