After Years of Stagnation, Northern EU Enlargement Returns to the European Debate. Iceland and Norway Reconsider Joining the European Union Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Security Concerns.
After years of silence, the topic of European Union enlargement to the north has reemerged in political discussions across the continent. In both Iceland and Norway, public debate is growing around reconsidering EU membership. The renewed interest is driven by a shifting geopolitical landscape — including the Russian threat, Donald Trump’s policies, rising tensions in Northern Europe, and the growing importance of energy security.
“I would very much like to see Iceland and Norway join the European Union. It would be a positive signal and a strong impulse that would further strengthen the Union itself,”
said Łukasz Kohut, a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from the Civic Coalition (KO), who works on relations with both Scandinavian countries.
Iceland: Toward a Possible Referendum in 2027
Iceland began its EU accession process in 2010, opening 27 negotiation chapters, 11 of which were provisionally closed. Negotiations were suspended in 2013, and two years later the Icelandic government formally withdrew its application. Now, the situation appears to be changing.
Strongly linked to the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA), Iceland could reopen talks on full membership within the next few years.
“By 2027, Iceland will hold a referendum asking citizens whether to resume EU accession negotiations. It’s a major step toward European integration, and public sentiment is now highly pro-European,”
emphasizes Łukasz Kohut.
Norway: A New Debate After Decades of Resistance
Norway has twice rejected EU membership — in 1972 and 1994 — with 53.5% and 52.2% voting against accession, respectively. However, amid tensions on the border with Russia and a shifting security environment, the issue has returned to the national agenda.
According to Kohut, the return of Jens Stoltenberg, former Prime Minister and outgoing NATO Secretary-General, to domestic politics could serve as a catalyst for renewed discussion. Yet the fishing quotas issue remains the biggest obstacle — it was this question that twice determined Norway’s “no” votes in the past.
“The European Union must also take a step back and reflect on its own approach. I hope that this conversation is still ahead of us and that during this parliamentary term we will at least begin talks about a third Norwegian referendum,”
says the MEP.
Security Infrastructure: A Common Concern
For both Iceland and Norway, security — both infrastructural and military — is now the dominant concern.
“Iceland has four undersea cables: two connecting it to Europe and two to North America. The Faroe Islands have only two, and there have been sightings of Russian submarines in the area, raising serious concern. Icelanders are also looking toward Greenland, recalling Donald Trump’s earlier, rather provocative remarks about the island. Given Iceland’s proximity to Greenland, this security dimension is crucial,”
explains Kohut.
Similar worries exist in Norway, which experienced a hybrid border incident over a decade ago when more than 1,000 migrants on bicycles crossed from Russia. In recent weeks, drone incidents have also disrupted air traffic in the north.
“Security is at the heart of Norway’s public debate — not only regarding the Arctic and the North, but also in the context of the Baltic Sea and maritime threats,”
notes the Polish MEP.
Greenland and the Faroe Islands: Strategic Partners in Energy and Minerals
The EU, Kohut argues, should also strengthen dialogue with Greenlanders, who could help Europe reduce dependence on China in the supply of rare earth elements.
According to the Polish Economic Institute, the ice-free regions of Greenland contain massive deposits of rare earth minerals, estimated at millions of tons — about 30% of global reserves, comparable to those in China. The island also holds significant quantities of critical raw materials such as titanium (12,100 tons), phosphorus (11,500 tons), and notable amounts of niobium, tantalum, vanadium, graphite, and platinum group metals.
“Greenland and the Faroe Islands are part of the Kingdom of Denmark, but they are autonomous overseas territories — independence is in their DNA. We can’t pressure them; we’re not populists, we’re not Donald Trump. We don’t force anyone. The Prime Minister of Greenland recently addressed the European Parliament, so diplomatic discussions are already underway. In terms of security, energy, and critical minerals, these territories would be a major asset for Europe’s future,”
stresses Kohut.
The Arctic Link That Could Strengthen Europe
The prospect of northern enlargement is becoming increasingly realistic. In a world where security, energy, and solidarity are paramount, Iceland and Norway could become the missing links that bring the Arctic closer to the European Union, while providing a counterbalance to Brexit.
“Their accession would greatly strengthen the EU — showing that it’s not only for the eastern and southern countries that are less wealthy, but also for the rich and developed nations of the North. Norway, which has smoothly undergone an energy transition and sets global standards in the field, would significantly bolster the European economy. It’s one of the richest countries in the world, and it already implements almost all EU legislation. It wouldn’t take much to bring it formally into the Union — and that would truly make the EU stronger,”
concludes Łukasz Kohut.
