Central and Eastern European economies are particularly exposed to swings in electricity, gas and oil prices, according to the energy chapter of the SGH and Economic Forum 2026 Report. Researchers argue that the biggest economic effects do not necessarily appear immediately in GDP. They accumulate through investment, industrial competitiveness, household costs and the structure of energy supply.
That distinction is important for Poland. A short-lived price spike may have only a limited effect on quarterly growth, while repeated shocks can change where companies invest, which industrial processes remain competitive and how much households have left for other spending.
Energy shocks work through several channels
Higher energy prices raise direct costs for households and businesses, but the second-round effects can be just as important. Energy-intensive companies may reduce production, postpone investment or pass costs to customers. Higher inflation can influence monetary policy, while governments may face pressure to introduce subsidies or temporary price controls.
For import-dependent economies, expensive oil and gas can also worsen the trade balance. The final effect depends on the energy mix, the structure of industry and the ability of companies to improve efficiency or switch to alternative sources.
Central Europe is particularly sensitive
Many economies in the region combine a significant industrial base with energy systems that are still undergoing transition. That makes them vulnerable when global commodity prices rise quickly or supply routes are disrupted.
Poland has diversified gas and oil supplies significantly in recent years, but global prices still matter. Electricity costs are also linked to domestic generation structure, grid constraints, carbon costs and the pace of investment in new capacity.
The long-term risk is weaker competitiveness
If energy remains structurally more expensive or more volatile than in competing regions, investment decisions can gradually move elsewhere. The effect is especially important for industries where energy represents a large share of production costs.
Uncertainty itself has a cost. A company can often manage a high but predictable energy price more easily than a market where prices move sharply and future regulation is difficult to forecast. Volatility makes long-term contracts, capital expenditure and location decisions harder.
Resilience matters more than repeated emergency intervention
The report’s authors favour a predictable energy transition and measures that strengthen resilience rather than relying primarily on temporary interventions after each shock. That means diversification of supply, investment in electricity grids, new generation capacity and a regulatory framework that allows companies to plan over several years.
For Poland, grid investment is particularly important. Adding new renewable or conventional generation does not solve the problem if the network cannot connect projects or move electricity efficiently between regions.
Energy policy is becoming industrial policy
The debate is no longer only about household bills or security of supply. The price and reliability of electricity increasingly influence where data centres, factories and other capital-intensive projects are built.
That means energy policy has a direct connection with Poland’s ability to attract investment. A resilient system can support industrial growth; persistent price uncertainty can become a disadvantage even when headline GDP remains relatively strong in the short term.
The main message from the SGH analysis is therefore structural. Energy shocks may not always produce an immediate collapse in growth, but repeated exposure can reshape the economy over time. For Central Europe, reducing that vulnerability is becoming part of the competitiveness agenda.
Source: Newseria Biznes; SGH and Economic Forum 2026 Report.
