An analysis of more than 76.7k retail prices showed that in January, daily shopping costs increased by an average of 5.9%, which is only slightly more than in previous months. Nearly all of the 17 monitored categories became more expensive year-on-year – ranging from 2.8% to 10.4%. This time, the prices for sweets and desserts rose most dramatically – by 10.4% year-on-year. The top five also includes fruits with an average year-on-year increase of 10.2%, fatty foods – 9.7%, non-alcoholic beverages – 7.8%, and bread – 7.7%. In January, only bulk products saw a decrease in prices by 0.7% year-on-year.
According to the latest report titled “Retail Shop Price Index”, authored by UCE RESEARCH and the WSB Merito University, daily shopping costs increased by an average of 5.9% year-on-year in January. For comparison, the year-on-year increase in December was 5.6%, and in November – 5.5%. The dynamics of price increases year on year are rising, but the month-on-month increase is quite small.
– The year-on-year increase in prices is not due to one-off jumps, but to systematically rising production, distribution and labour costs. The monthly slowdown in the dynamics of increases means a temporary slowdown, resulting from seasonal effects – comments Dr. Hubert Gąsiński from the WSB Merito University.
In January, nearly all of the 17 monitored categories became more expensive year-on-year – ranging from 2.8% to 10.4%, and only one product group experienced a drop – by 0.7% year-on-year. However, in the last months of 2024 all segments were in the plus, i.e. in December – from 0.2% to 10.3%, and in November – from 0.2% to 16.6%.
– Prices are generally rising. Although these increases are severe for many social groups, they no longer trigger the emotions they did a year ago. Poles have been living with high prices for several years. We can distinguish three main groups of factors determining this situation, namely production costs, and rising wages as well as energy and fuel prices – says Dr. Robert Orpych from the WSB Merito University.
This time, sweets and desserts saw the most significant year on year increase – 10.4%. – This result is a continuation of the trend observed in previous months. In December, the year-on-year increase was 8.4%, and in November – 10.2%. This means that the dynamics of prices in this segment not only remain high but accelerated again in January. The main factor is the situation in the global raw material market, especially cocoa and sugar – explains Dr. Hubert Gąsiński.
Fruits took the second place in the ranking with an average year-on-year increase of 10.2%. – The dynamic increase in prices in January 2025 continues the strong upward trend. Compared to December and November, when the year on year price increases were 8.2% and 7.4% respectively, we can see an accelerating trend of inflation. Therefore, fruits are becoming one of the fastest rising product groups, which may be a result of seasonal factors and structural supply problems – argues Dr. Hubert Gąsiński.
Fatty food (butter, margarine, oil, etc.) are in third place, having become more expensive by an average of 9.7% year on year. – This category deserves particular attention due to the high prices of butter. This product has become a symbol of luxury shopping in recent months, and this is not coincidental. The purchase price of milk is rising – emphasizes Dr. Robert Orpych.
Non-alcoholic beverages are fourth with an average increase of 7.8% year on year. – They were previously outside the top five. Their ascent in the ranking indicates ongoing cost pressure. While the dynamics of price increases are not accelerating rapidly as previous results were similar, the consistent increases suggest that the prices of these products are still reacting to the rising costs of production, transportation and packaging – states Dr. Hubert Gąsiński.
Bread closes the top five, with prices going up by 7.7% year on year. – The baking industry has been struggling with high raw material, production and distribution costs for some time now. Gas and energy prices play a key role. The pressure for wage increases is also significant. Add to this the shortage of qualified bakers – notes Dr. Robert Orpych.
Just outside of the top five, we find dairy products with an average increase of 7.2% year on year. – The decrease in the dynamics of price increases in January 2025 after previous increases of 8.1% in December and November, can imply a gradual weakening in inflationary pressure. Although prices continue to rise at a rate exceeding overall inflation, the slowdown in the dynamic might suggest that the cost factors that drove earlier increases have begun to stabilize – analyzes Dr. Hubert Gąsiński from WSB Merito.
Further down the January ranking we find pet food with a year on year rise of 6.8%, fish – 5.8%, and also cold cuts – 5.7%. Then comes meat with a year on year increase of 5.2%. – The pricing of pet food is heavily influenced by high production costs, including energy and fuel. The pressure for wage increases is also significant. Price increases for meat, cold cuts, but also fish are not significant. The rise in the price of meat, cold cuts, and fish is insignificant. However, in recent months it can be observed that the dynamics are accelerating – emphasizes Dr. Robert Orpych.
Narcotics, personal hygiene products, and children’s items are next in the ranking, with year-on-year increases of 5.3%, 5.1% and 4.9%. – In two categories, i.e. narcotics and children’s goods, the situation is stable. In the last three months, the dynamics of year-on-year price increases did not exceed 6%. It could have been affected by strong competition between large retail chains, fighting for customers. On the other hand, personal hygiene products, which are essential, have recently become much more expensive than in December. However, they are not recording significant growth, which should be considered a positive phenomenon – assesses Dr. Robert Orpych.
The next item in the table is household chemicals, which became more expensive year-on-year by 4.2%. UCE RESEARCH analysts remind that in December, this was the number one item in the entire ranking. At that time, year-on-year prices went up by 10.3%. – The significant price jump in December could be related to the intense shopping period. Households bought more cleaning products before the holidays, which allowed for higher prices. In January, demand naturally fell, which could have forced a restriction on price rises. An additional factor were New Year’s sales – explains Dr. Hubert Gąsiński.
Food additives (mustards, ketchups, mayonnaise etc.) were near the bottom of the January ranking with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. – We can see the impact of raw material price stabilization. Mustard, ketchup and mayonnaise are based on ingredients such as vinegar, vegetable oils, sugar, tomatoes or eggs. In recent months, the prices of some of them have not risen as dynamically as in 2024, which could have limited pressure for further increases – adds an expert from WSB Merito.
Vegetables were at the bottom of the ranking of price increases, averaging a year-on-year price increase of 2.8%. In December, they were third in the ranking with an increase of 8.6%. – Just a few months ago, vegetables were one of the fastest rising product groups, and now they are at the bottom of the table. This significant change results from several factors. The key role is played by supply stabilization and improved vegetable availability on the market. In addition, after the holiday period, consumers may have cut back on purchasing more expensive vegetables, which put pressure on retailers and producers to refrain from raising prices. Finally, it is worth paying attention to the statistical base effect – adds Dr. Hubert Gąsiński.
In January there were only bulk products with an average price drop of 0.7% year-on-year. – In this case, we have been observing for quite some time that year-on-year prices are rising slightly, and even showing a decrease in some months. This is a very positive fact, especially since such products are an integral part of the diet of the Polish society – summarizes Dr. Robert Orpych.
About the research method
The data comes from a periodic report titled “Retail Shop Price Index” (published monthly for nearly 8 years), authored by UCE RESEARCH and the WSB Merito University (formerly Higher Banking Schools). The analysis shows the average price value, noted from month to month and year to year. In the latest edition, the results from January 2025 were compared with the same period in 2024. This applied to 17 categories and more than 100 consumer products that are most frequently chosen by consumers. In total, over 76.7k retail prices from nearly 39k stores belonging to 62 retail chains were compared with each other. The study covered all market discounters, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience chains and cash & carry stores that reach the majority of consumers in Poland with their offers.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/ceny-wciaz-rosna-w-styczniu-na-sklepowych-polkach-bylo-drozej-srednio-o-59-proc-r-r-84322
