TISZA’s victory, bringing Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule to an end, does not come as a major surprise. What has shaken the markets, however, is the scale of that victory. The historic mobilization of Hungarian voters enabled the opposition party to win 137 seats, securing a constitutional majority. The forint and the Hungarian stock market have both posted significant gains.
The most optimistic market scenario has come true: the opposition TISZA party has won more than 132 seats, guaranteeing a constitutional majority. This makes it possible, among other things, to amend the constitution without the opposition’s consent and to pass or modify so-called “cardinal laws” governing issues such as electoral law, the status of public media, the powers of the courts, and certain tax and budgetary matters.
Although, in our view, TISZA’s victory had already been partly priced in by investors — we see this as one of the factors behind the substantial appreciation of the currency in 2025 — markets had not assigned a high probability to a scenario in which the opposition would secure a constitutional majority. This explains the remarkable scale of the Hungarian currency’s appreciation, with the forint strengthening by more than 4% against the benchmark euro in recent days. Optimism is also visible on the Budapest Stock Exchange. Over the past week, Hungary’s BUX index has gained nearly 10%.
For investors, the key takeaway is that a significant thaw in Budapest–Brussels relations can now be expected — an end to veto politics, constructive cooperation with Brussels, and preparations for the country’s potential adoption of the euro. Over the coming months, this should lead to the unfreezing of EUR 8.4 billion from the Cohesion Fund and EUR 9.5 billion from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, as well as the approval of a low-interest loan plan under the SAFE program worth EUR 17.4 billion. We expect this to provide a significant growth boost to the Hungarian economy.
We would also highlight the following:
Rule of law and the fight against corruption: Magyar has pledged to hold the National System of Cooperation (NER) to account, join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), and ensure full transparency in the use of public funds.
Democratic model and approach to state media: restoring pluralism is one of TISZA’s priorities, including through such measures as limiting the prime minister’s term to eight years and allowing citizens to directly elect the president. Considerable attention is also being paid to the depoliticization of public media.
Relations with Russia and the war in Ukraine: unlike Fidesz, TISZA supports maintaining sanctions against Russia and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. In his speeches, Magyar has announced a gradual reduction of Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia. He does not rule out Ukraine’s accession to the EU in the long term, though not through a fast-track procedure.
Values: although also conservative, TISZA is seen as a much more centrist and liberal party than Fidesz. Magyar is far more cautious on issues related to LGBT rights, uses a more inclusive definition of patriotism, and employs Christianity less instrumentally.
Despite appearances, however, TISZA has much in common with Fidesz. Magyar consistently describes himself as a “conservative liberal.” Like Viktor Orbán, he fought for the right-wing electorate by invoking national values, patriotism, and the country’s Christian roots.
The similarities include:
Migration policy: TISZA has pledged to keep the border fence built by Orbán along the Serbian border and supports a hard-line anti-immigration policy. In many votes on this issue in the European Parliament, it has maintained a common front with Fidesz.
Pro-family policy: Magyar emphasizes that this was one of the “few good things” in Fidesz’s record and says it only requires refinement. His party’s electoral platform includes, among other things:
doubling child benefits, which have not been indexed for years,
introducing a one-off childbirth allowance,
maintaining tax breaks for families with children,
preserving preferential terms for housing loans,
and introducing tax breaks for mothers in large families.
Christian values: the new prime minister underlines his attachment to Catholic values, and TISZA’s program includes a reference to protecting “Christian culture.” It is worth recalling that one of Hungary’s largest demonstrations in recent years began in front of St. Stephen’s Basilica.
Elements of state interventionism: despite being more liberal than Fidesz, TISZA is not a free-market party per se. Notable aspects include its willingness to:
support sectors and companies considered strategic from the state’s perspective,
intervene in the housing construction sector,
maintain price controls on household energy,
and make substantial public investments using EU funds.
Who is Hungary’s new prime minister?
The story of the 45-year-old is particularly interesting because he spent half his life associated with Fidesz. He was active in local party structures already during his student years, when the party was in opposition to the rule of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). After Fidesz returned to power in 2010, he began working at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He later became part of Hungary’s Permanent Representation to the EU, the Prime Minister’s Office, and the legal departments of major state-owned enterprises.
He never, however, built the kind of career within party structures that his former wife, Judit Varga, did when she became justice minister in 2019. Senior politicians did not regard Magyar — who repeatedly criticized government actions in internal disputes — as a “team player,” and the breakdown of his relationship with Varga only pushed him further away from Fidesz’s inner circle.
The turning point came with the scandal surrounding the presidential pardon of Endre Konyi, who had been convicted of covering up pedophilia-related crimes. The media’s disclosure of the case details in February 2024 remains one of the most severe crises Fidesz has faced to this day. It led to the resignations of President Katalin Novák and Justice Minister Judit Varga, who was already Magyar’s former wife at the time.
Magyar recognized this moment as the opportunity of his life and soon afterward released an audio recording of Varga relating to the most high-profile corruption case of recent years, the Schadl–Völner affair. He also gave an interview to the opposition-linked YouTube channel Partizán, which was viewed more than a million times within just a few days and has now reached 2.5 million views.
Momentum around Magyar grew at a stunning pace, allowing TISZA — which he had joined only shortly before — to win nearly 30% of the vote in the European Parliament elections. Since then, the party’s support has risen almost continuously, turning it into the unexpected favorite in the parliamentary elections it ultimately won. Magyar is expected to assume the office of prime minister no later than May 12. The inaugural sitting must be convened by President Tamás Sulyok within one month of the election date.
