From 1 July 2026, e-commerce parcels valued at up to EUR 150 and imported from outside the European Union will no longer benefit from customs duty exemptions. During a transitional period—initially expected to last until 1 July 2028—they are set to be subject to a EUR 3 fee for each tariff item in a shipment, rather than for each individual product.
In practice, five identical T-shirts would be treated as one tariff item and charged once, while a T-shirt and a pair of shoes would count as two separate tariff items. Although this may appear to be a technical change, it could significantly affect the business models of non-EU platforms, particularly Asian e-commerce players that have so far relied heavily on direct shipments to European consumers.
In 2025, imports from China to Poland totalled EUR 57.9 billion, while Polish exports to China reached EUR 3.1 billion. Chinese imports already account for 15.5% of Poland’s total imports and have been growing at an annual rate of 13%, compared with approximately 6% growth in total imports.
The same trend is visible in e-commerce. Between autumn 2024 and autumn 2025, Temu, Shein and AliExpress generated approximately PLN 11.6 billion in sales in Poland, translating into around 100 million parcels annually. This shows that trade relations are currently far stronger than investment ties, with Poland serving Chinese companies primarily as a consumer and distribution market.
For the warehouse real estate market, this could create a very specific demand impulse. A natural response from Chinese e-commerce giants may be to locate a larger share of their inventory within the European Union. In practice, this would mean additional demand for fulfilment centres, buffer warehouses, transshipment hubs and facilities supporting returns handling and fast distribution across several markets simultaneously.
We are also seeing this in discussions with prospective Chinese tenants. As part of Unlock Europe, a Cushman & Wakefield initiative carried out with the support of the APAC team, we met in Shanghai and Guangzhou with representatives of companies planning to enter or expand in the European Union market.
Interest in logistics space in Poland and the wider CEE region is real, although it is difficult to estimate its scale precisely at this stage. These estimates should be treated with caution, as the same enquiries may circulate through the market via several channels at once. Even under a conservative approach, however, the potential volume is meaningful in the context of the Polish market, where gross take-up reached 1.58 million sq m in the first quarter of 2026.
Poland has a strong position in this equation. It is the largest warehouse market in Central and Eastern Europe, with stock exceeding 37 million sq m, a developed road network, access to the ports of Gdańsk and Gdynia, proximity to Germany and a base of logistics operators specialising in e-commerce services.
At the same time, Poland does not always compete with the same level of direct investor incentives offered by some other regional markets, including Hungary. Its advantage must therefore rest primarily on market scale, infrastructure quality, availability of modern space and operational predictability.
For warehouse owners and developers, this represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Chinese tenants expect large-scale facilities, short delivery times, technical flexibility and highly efficient decision-making processes. At the same time, their risk profile differs from that of conventional long-term logistics operators.
For property owners and investment funds, the key issue is therefore not only the scale of potential demand, but also the strength of tenant guarantees, the tenant’s compliance profile and the re-letting risk associated with space prepared for a single user. The number of square metres must be assessed together with the certainty of the specific lease agreement.
Such demand could increase pressure on the availability of ready-to-occupy facilities and, in selected locations, reopen the discussion around a larger supply of speculative development. This type of construction has been limited in recent quarters following the peak of the e-commerce boom.
Data from the first quarter of 2026 illustrates this backdrop well. Net take-up in Poland increased by 78% year on year, but only around 37% of warehouse space currently under construction is being developed speculatively. The remaining space is being built for tenants with signed lease agreements.
This is particularly visible in highly active markets such as Lower Silesia, where vacancy rates fell within a single quarter from double-digit levels to just a few percent. This means that relatively few large, contiguous units are currently available immediately. If the increased wave of Chinese enquiries materialises, the market may struggle to serve it at once, and the issue of speculative development is likely to return.
According to Cushman & Wakefield data, the construction of a build-to-suit warehouse in Poland takes an average of around five quarters.
The customs change may therefore become one of the factors accelerating the shift of some goods flows away from direct cross-border parcel deliveries and towards European distribution hubs. For Poland, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position as one of the main entry points for global e-commerce into the European Union.
However, this will require a rapid market response, the availability of suitable space and a readiness to operate at the pace expected by new tenants. It is also worth remembering that warehouse decisions should not be made solely under time pressure. In Europe, the largest cost is not always the rent itself, but an unsuitable location or facility that is difficult to exit later.
