According to data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales in August were 3.1% higher than a year earlier. Compared to July, however, there was a slight decline of 0.4%. A similar pattern can be seen in online trade, though with sharper movements: year-on-year e-commerce sales rose by 4.9%, but at the same time fell by as much as 6.2% compared to July.
At first glance, these figures might look like nothing more than another confirmation of seasonal patterns in retail. Yet beneath the surface, something far more interesting – and somewhat worrying – is taking place.
In August, the downward trend in the share of online sales in overall retail continued. The ratio stood at 8.1%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than in July. This marks the ninth consecutive month without growth.
For the past five years, the cycle was predictable: a peak in November (Black Friday and Christmas), followed by a drop of around 2 percentage points, spring fluctuations, and then gradual recovery over the summer. In 2025, this pattern broke down. Instead of a rebound, we are seeing a consistent decline.
Does this mean e-commerce’s share will no longer return to double digits, even during the holiday season? Or, on the contrary, could we see sharper spikes followed by equally steep drops?
Both scenarios are possible, as not only the pace but the very nature of e-commerce growth is changing. The key question may no longer be how much is bought online, but what and how consumers are purchasing through this channel.
Take, for example, the category “Motor vehicles, motorcycles, and parts,” which has been growing steadily for months. In August, sales here surged by more than 330% year-on-year. This strong trend, ongoing since the start of the year, suggests increasing consumer trust in making high-budget purchases online.
Another fast-growing segment is “Food, beverages, and tobacco products,” with sales up more than 66% year-on-year. Consumers are increasingly turning to online channels for everyday, repeat purchases that until recently were considered inherently “offline.”
This is also reflected in the strategies of leading players. Frisco – Poland’s e-grocery leader with a 50% market share – is now closer to profitability than at any time since 2020. In the second quarter of 2025, the company improved all key indicators: sales up 25% year-on-year, average basket value up 8%, and active customers up 11%.
On one hand, we see growing diversity in the categories where e-commerce is expanding. On the other, its share of overall retail is declining. This does not have to be a contradiction. It may instead be a sign that e-commerce has reached maturity, and its future growth will depend less on scale and more on the ability to meet changing customer needs – and on the quality of the entire purchasing journey, from payments to logistics and after-sales service.
Author: Miłosz Mickiewicz, Sales and Business Development Director, Comperia.pl SA
Source: CEO.com.pl
