According to the authors of a report by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation and the Polish Dual-Use Chamber, annual expenditure equivalent to 1.5% of GDP could be more than a cost of building national resilience. It could also become a major investment opportunity.
There is, however, one key condition: the funds must support domestic industry rather than finance the import of ready-made solutions from abroad. Stimulating Polish innovation could generate benefits far beyond the defence sector, providing a significant boost to civilian businesses.
It could also open the door to new and highly profitable markets, ranging from protective construction and space technologies to a new class of investment assets represented by dual-use infrastructure.
The report, entitled Building Poland’s Resilience Under NATO’s New Spending Targets, reframes the nature of defence expenditure. Under the “triple resilience dividend” model, preventive investment generates returns regardless of whether a crisis actually occurs. These benefits come from avoiding future losses, unlocking private and public investment, and making everyday use of dual-use infrastructure.
“Every złoty allocated under the 1.5% component should serve two purposes: a shelter that functions as a car park or metro station in everyday use; an emergency communications network that supports the routine operations of public services; or a hospital and production capacity that perform a genuine function in peacetime,” said Zbigniew Pisarski, President of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation.
“This approach connects security with the economy. It builds domestic expertise, creates jobs and strengthens export potential instead of financing the import of ready-made solutions.”
Why the Resilience Spending Basket Could Become a Long-Term Development Policy
To achieve this, the report recommends introducing local-content requirements in resilience-related procurement, licensing and transferring technology from experienced international partners, and using this cooperation to build domestic capabilities.
It also calls for greater support for Poland’s deep-tech sector, from artificial intelligence-based threat detection systems to satellite technologies.
By 2035, the defence sector and its wider industrial base may require approximately 250,000 additional workers.
This would create demand not only for engineers and defence specialists, but also for employees in construction, energy, telecommunications, cybersecurity, logistics and advanced manufacturing.
The authors argue that resilience spending should therefore be treated as part of a broader industrial and innovation policy rather than as a narrowly defined security cost.
Billions of Zlotys in Funding Will Soon Be Available
For businesses and local authorities, the report identifies a range of concrete financing instruments.
The first calls for applications under the Security and Defence Fund are expected to be launched soon. The fund will distribute PLN 22.5 billion from Poland’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
Local governments will be able to apply for interest-free loans, part of which may be written off. Businesses and universities are expected to receive equity support through a special-purpose vehicle established by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego.
At the same time, the European Union’s SAFE programme is becoming an important strategic financing instrument.
The funding landscape is complemented by the STEP and European Funds for a Modern Economy platforms, which support deep-tech and dual-use technologies, as well as the European Defence Fund and the Connecting Europe Facility’s Military Mobility instrument.
Together, these programmes could provide Polish companies with access to significant capital for research, development, infrastructure and industrial expansion.
Civilian Innovation Is Increasingly Important on the Modern Battlefield
“The modern battlefield has shown that the most important innovations giving armed forces an advantage are no longer developed exclusively in closed military laboratories. They increasingly emerge from the dynamic civilian sector,” said Brigadier General Adam Duda, retired, President of the Polish Dual-Use Chamber.
“Artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, advanced sensors, space technologies and communications are all areas in which Polish private companies already offer world-class solutions.”
He stressed that investment in national resilience makes sense only when the resulting infrastructure performs a dual role.
“It should serve citizens in peacetime and provide immediate protection in the event of a threat. The role of the Polish Dual-Use Chamber is to act as an institutional link that removes procedural barriers and shortens the path from innovations developed by Polish engineers to the end user.”
Dual-use technologies can therefore create commercial opportunities in both civilian and defence markets. A system designed for military communications may also support emergency services, while satellite data can be used in defence, agriculture, transport and crisis management.
Dual-Use Infrastructure Is Emerging as a New Investment Asset Class
The report also points to the growing importance of dual-use infrastructure as an investable asset class.
Facilities such as underground car parks adapted for use as shelters, secure data centres, emergency communications networks, energy storage systems and resilient hospitals can provide economic value during normal operations while also strengthening national security.
This model could attract long-term investors, including banks, infrastructure funds, pension funds and insurers, provided that projects are supported by clear legal frameworks and predictable public policy.
The dual-use approach could also help reduce the economic burden of resilience spending, as infrastructure would generate revenue or public value even when it is not being used for emergency purposes.
The Window of Opportunity Is Narrow
The timetable for European funding programmes and ongoing legislative work creates a limited window of opportunity which, according to the report’s authors, may not be repeated on a similar scale.
Companies that develop expertise today in protective construction, chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear filtration and ventilation systems, facility-readiness monitoring, industrial cybersecurity or satellite technologies could enter a market worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually across NATO countries.
The crucial question is whether Polish companies will enter that market as suppliers of technology and infrastructure or remain dependent on imported solutions.
Building domestic capabilities now could allow Poland to retain a larger share of public investment within the national economy, strengthen supply-chain security and create products with international export potential.
Failure to act quickly, however, could mean that the largest contracts and most attractive market positions are secured by foreign suppliers before Polish companies are ready to compete.
About the Authors
The Polish Dual-Use Chamber is an organisation bringing together companies and public institutions operating in the fields of dual-use technologies and security. It operates under the Polish Act on Chambers of Commerce. Its objective is to integrate Poland’s dual-use ecosystem and represent its interests at the national and European levels.
The Casimir Pulaski Foundation is one of Poland’s leading think tanks specialising in foreign policy and international security. It has operated for more than 20 years, brings together over 50 experts and publishes analyses in the Pulaski Commentary, Pulaski Policy Paper and Pulaski Report series.
The National Security Industry Club is a dialogue platform established by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation in 2024. It brings together representatives of the private sector and public administration to address practical economic, political and organisational challenges related to defence and national resilience.
