Polish summers are increasingly resembling Mediterranean ones in terms of temperatures. The number of days with temperatures exceeding 30°C and tropical nights is growing, while heatwaves contribute to the intensification of droughts. Deforestation and the expansion of impermeable surfaces, combined with poor water management, have been increasing the “escape” of water from Poland in recent decades, leading to more intense drought impacts, according to the analysis from “Science of Climate.” The issue lies in the lack of a coherent and consistent water resource management policy.
“During summer, we are seeing more frequent heatwaves. We expect that we will encounter temperatures above 30°C more often, as well as tropical nights, during which the temperature doesn’t drop below 20°C. This prevents proper regeneration, and these conditions will effectively change the way our summers will look,” says Dr. Aleksandra Kardaś from the Climate Education Foundation and the “Science of Climate” portal in an interview with Newseria.
According to the analysis based on data from IMGW-PIB, the average temperature during the June–August period in Poland has risen by approximately 2.2°C since the 1950s, with average maximum temperatures increasing just slightly less. Their rate of growth has accelerated in recent decades, with the last 10 years being particularly warm. The number of hot days, with temperatures exceeding 30°C, has also increased. In the 1950s and 60s, there were only a few such days per year, but now more than 20 are recorded annually.
“Additionally, we will face more frequent and severe droughts. They already occur practically every year, while decades ago, droughts occurred once every few years. Now, droughts have become a permanent situation. So, these two factors—high temperatures and droughts—are the most noticeable and directly associated with climate change,” the expert explains.
Higher temperatures lead to stronger evaporation, and because the total amount of summer rainfall and the annual total precipitation do not increase, this means that water deficits are becoming more frequent. Since the 1990s, there has been a clear increase in dry days in Poland, with rainfall below 1 mm—about two more days per decade—and dry periods are getting longer, meaning several dry days in a row.
“Drought is a long-term phenomenon. It doesn’t appear overnight; it builds up over several months. It starts with a deficit in rainfall, meaning less precipitation than evaporation, and the water level in soil and water reservoirs drops. The longer it lasts, the more severe the drought becomes. Currently, drought occurs practically every year, and while it may weaken in some months or even disappear, it gradually returns,” says Dr. Aleksandra Kardaś.
According to the Drought Mitigation Plan (PPSS), the frequency of droughts has been increasing since the 1950s. The data on the “Science of Climate” portal indicates that while droughts occurred six times in Poland between 1951 and 1981 (on average once every five years), they occurred 18 times between 1982 and 2011 (on average every two years), and in recent years, practically every year. Besides higher evaporation, the causes include increasingly thinner and shorter-lasting snow cover in winter and changes in precipitation patterns—long dry periods interrupted by heavy rainfall instead of regular and moderate showers.
“Even if a heavy rain comes, unfortunately, water resources and soil moisture are not replenished, because a lot of the water runs off the surface during the downpour and doesn’t have time to soak into the ground, to replenish the moisture reserves,” says the expert from the “Science of Climate” Foundation.
As a result, according to Wody Polskie, almost all rainfall quickly and wastefully flows into rivers and then to the sea. In Poland, we manage to retain about 7.5% of the average annual river runoff, while due to geographical conditions, we could retain up to 15%.
“Drought mitigation actions are being taken in Poland, although I feel that they are most effective when local communities are involved. They stop intensive drainage of their fields and instead focus on blocking water runoff from the area, with initiatives like afforestation, planting plants between fields, and holding water where it falls. There are places in our country where people have started to retain water in the landscape, and there, droughts are much milder,” says Dr. Aleksandra Kardaś. “This is an area where local authorities can play a big role in helping to organize, deciding what will happen in a given region, which areas should be allocated for regular flooding. Often, it’s about decisions regarding specific rivers or wetland areas. Social dialogue in specific locations and decisions that consider local conditions and the interests of the local population are essential.”
The authors of the “Water Management” report note that authorities recognize these problems, but mainly during spectacular floods or droughts, or when the quality of water in rivers deteriorates dramatically. However, there is still a lack of a coherent, consistent, reasonable, and long-term policy for managing water resources. Experts argue that this is necessary because Poland is one of the countries with the poorest water resources in the European Union. Each person in Poland has almost three times less water than in most European countries.
