The anticipated presidential tsunami shook the markets today. According to all indications, Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the USA. Furthermore, he will be able to count on the support of the Republican Senate.
It was not a level battle
Contrary to analysts and pollsters’ expectations, the race for the White House turned out to be quite one-sided. Initially, while counting the votes, it seemed like we were in for a razor-thin fight. However, Donald Trump quickly took the lead, and everything indicates that he will hold on to it. Thus, the most negative scenario (at least from the market’s perspective), where political struggle would continue long after the elections, did not happen. True, Kamala Harris has not officially acknowledged her defeat yet, but she is likely to do so tomorrow at her announced speech. Trump won in the most crucial swing states, with Pennsylvania at the forefront, and his lead appears to be entirely unthreatened. Moreover, in the Senate elections, Republicans are expected to gain a safe majority (currently, 52 votes). This means that it will be easier for the new/old president to implement his election promises.
The dollar wave
As expected, Trump’s victory positively affected the dollar’s valuation. The American currency is strengthening rapidly today, gaining nearly 2.5 cents against the euro. The Polish zloty, however, is falling against the USD (6 groszy), CHF (occasionally even 5 groszy, although some losses were eventually recovered) and GBP (similar to the franc). Only against the euro, despite some fluctuations, the zloty remains in relative equilibrium. The US elections also affected the market for key commodities. Gold, silver, and oil are losing, stemming partly from the dollar’s appreciation and changing fundamentals.
No surprises from the Monetary Policy Council
Amid the American presidential tornado, we have today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates at the current level. This decision did not surprise investors and practically went unnoticed. The press conference of President Glapiński tomorrow also does not promise to be at all exciting. The market expects to maintain the narrative from the previous meeting. Despite all of today’s chaos, it is also worth mentioning good data from the German industry. Our western neighbors rarely have reasons to be satisfied recently, so a significant increase in industrial orders might improve the mood a bit. But that will only happen when the post-election dust settles.
Author: Krzysztof Adamczak, currency analyst for Walutomat.pl
Source: https://managerplus.pl/zwyciestwo-trumpa-dolar-w-gore-zloty-i-surowce-pod-presja-55294
