Data from Poland did not impress, but no one expected miracles in the construction market after the expiration of government support. Noteworthy is the dollar, which once again decided to strengthen against major currencies, leveraging, among other things, good readings from the labor market.
Data from Poland
Yesterday we learned about the data on construction and assembly production in Poland, which fell by 9.6%. This is a stronger decline than analysts forecasted, assuming a result of 6.8%. Such low values are due to the market’s stabilization after the absence of another program to stimulate it. It’s also worth remembering that a reduction of nearly 10% does not mean the sector has significantly retreated. We are about just at the same level as in October 2022. We have thus returned to around the level a year before the start of the Safe Loan 2% program. A worse surprise for the Polish zloty, however, was the falling consumer sentiment index. This, after several quarters of weaker results, is beginning to decline again.
US Readings
Yesterday, a packet of data from across the ocean was published. Of particular note is the number of unemployment benefit claims, which again decreased, reaching 213,000. This is a value close to thresholds at which one can expect unemployment to drop. It is, of course, necessary to exercise caution with such projections, as last week’s data have been revised upwards and it is likely that this week’s final result was also underestimated. After these data, the dollar strengthened and discussions about a possible parity of the euro with the dollar were revived in the markets. Looking at the morning moves in the market, this topic remains current since the US currency continues to gain in value.
Turkey does not change interest rates
At yesterday’s meeting, the Central Bank of Turkey decided to keep interest rates at unchanged levels. Although recent inflation decreases are pleasing, they do not yet allow for the start of a reduction cycle. However, the success is significant as since May inflation has markedly reduced – from 75.45% to 48.58%. This clearly shows that we are witnessing a trend change for the better. The Turkish Lira, however, continues to lose value against the dollar. With the stabilizing situation, this decline is slowing down. Over the year, the lira has weakened by 20%, of which in the last three months only by 2%.
Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
