Amid Russian-Belarusian military maneuvers, Poland’s Minister of the Interior and Administration, Marcin Kierwiński, signed a regulation temporarily suspending border traffic at crossings with Belarus. While justified by national security concerns, the decision carries serious economic consequences. What costs is Poland incurring as a result of this unfavorable geopolitical situation and the actions of its eastern neighbors?
Poland’s Role in the New Silk Road
Despite a significant decline in trade between Poland and Russia and Belarus, the Polish-Belarusian border remains a key element of the international trade corridor that is part of the New Silk Road. This initiative, linking China with Western Europe, aims to increase trade volumes between the regions. Poland—particularly the Małaszewicze border crossing—plays a strategic role in transporting goods within this project.
Consequences for Polish Rail Transport
Between January and August 2025, rail freight volumes from China to Europe reached 165,000 TEU (20-foot container equivalents), with as much as 90% passing through the Polish-Belarusian border, served by the logistics hub in Małaszewicze.
Although transport in the opposite direction (from Poland to China) is much smaller—just 7,000 TEU—the border closure is hitting Poland’s transport sector hard. Poland is the leader in the European transport market, accounting for 20% of transport work in the EU. Limiting intermodal transport destined for the wider EU significantly reduces demand for Polish transport services.
“The alternative transport route via Turkey and the Black Sea is gaining importance,” says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface for Poland and Central and Eastern Europe. “The closure of the border benefits countries located south of Poland, such as Romania and Bulgaria. Since January 1, 2025, both have become full members of the Schengen area, making transport across their borders more attractive than in previous years,” the expert adds.
What’s Next for the Polish Economy?
International trade benefits Poland’s economy, even in exchanges with China, where Poland maintains a trade deficit. The largest category of goods imported from China (around 26% of the volume) includes machinery, electrical equipment, and parts—essential for investment in the production capacity of Polish industrial companies.
“Disruptions in supply chains caused by the border closure may force companies to halt investments or cause further delays in component deliveries, negatively affecting the domestic economy,” comments Dr. Dadej.
Source: CEO.com.pl
