The June Developers’ Sentiment Index published by housing portal Tabelaofert has delivered the strongest warning signal from Poland’s primary housing market in months. The Sales Pace Change Index fell to -0.09, dropping below zero for the first time since November 2024.
Developers are becoming less confident that sales will continue to accelerate and are increasingly preparing for weaker results. Optimism over further price growth has also fallen sharply, although price stability remains the dominant scenario for now.
“Sentiment among developers is deteriorating quickly. Expectations that sales will continue to grow have disappeared. That is the fundamental difference,” said Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.
“For several months, the industry was hoping that interest-rate cuts would stimulate demand and improve buyers’ creditworthiness. Today, it is clear that without such an impulse, the market has stalled. Buyers have not disappeared, but they are no longer in a hurry. They have a choice — and a wide one — because supply is increasing. They compare offers, check financing options and negotiate. Developers can see this, and the number of pessimists is growing.”
Fewer optimists, more caution
The most important change is not that developers are suddenly expecting a widespread collapse in sales. The key issue is how quickly the group of companies expecting further market acceleration has shrunk.
As recently as February, nearly 58% of surveyed developers expected sales to increase. By June, this share had fallen to around 18%.
At the same time, the number of companies anticipating weaker results has risen. At the beginning of the year, only a few percent of respondents expected sales to deteriorate. In May, that figure increased to 17.2%, and in June it approached 27%.
The market has therefore shifted away from expectations of improvement and toward the more difficult task of defending current sales levels. This is not because demand has disappeared, but mainly because demand is now spread across a growing number of sales offices and housing projects.
Stability remains the most common response, but it is increasingly clear that developers are preparing for a more difficult holiday season.
“This is a moment of reality after a very optimistic start to the year,” Chojnacki said. “In February, most developers expected sales to continue growing. Today, only one in five companies expects that scenario. It does not mean that buyers have disappeared from the market. It means that the market is beginning to test offers ruthlessly. Good projects will defend their sales performance, while weaker ones will have to compete much more aggressively on price.”
Sales weaken, but prices have not broken yet
The decline in sentiment is also visible in expectations for housing prices. The Housing Price Change Index stood at 0.03 in June, down sharply from 0.14 in May and well below March’s annual high of 0.22.
This suggests that developers have largely stopped expecting further price increases, but they are not yet forecasting broad price declines.
The data do not point to an immediate shift toward widespread price cuts. In June, 84% of surveyed companies expected their current price lists to remain unchanged. Only 9.3% anticipated price increases, while 6.3% expected prices to fall.
“Weaker sales do not automatically mean cheaper apartments,” said Katarzyna Tworska, Managing Director of Rednet24, a company specialising in residential sales for developers.
“Developers see that the market is becoming more difficult, but most still want to defend their price lists. Price lists, however, are not necessarily the same as final transaction prices. This means that buyers may have room for discussion. Sales pressure is likely to be reflected not so much in direct cuts to catalogue prices, but in discounts, promotions, parking spaces, payment schedules or individual negotiations.”
Two indices, two sharp declines
The contrast between the two indicators is significant. The Sales Pace Change Index fell below zero, while the Housing Price Change Index, despite a record monthly decline, remained slightly positive.
Developers increasingly recognise that sales may become more difficult and are more willing to consider lower prices where necessary.
“Demand is weakening, and with it expectations of price growth,” said Ewa Palus, Chief Analyst at Tabelaofert. “However, the market is not uniform, and the situation will increasingly depend on the specific city, development and structure of the offer. In some projects, pressure to offer discounts may increase, while in others developers will continue to defend their prices.”
A rebound will be difficult without a credit impulse
One reason for weaker sentiment is the lack of a clear financing-related stimulus. Earlier this year, the market expected further interest-rate cuts that could improve buyers’ mortgage affordability. That scenario is now less certain, meaning some potential buyers may delay their purchasing decisions for longer.
High supply is another important factor. At the current pace, by next summer every second apartment offered by developers could be a completed unit ready for handover.
Seasonality is also affecting sentiment. July and August are typically weaker months for residential sales. With such a broad range of properties available, buyers know they do not need to make decisions immediately, which may further extend the sales process.
“With supply at such high levels, the housing market now needs a genuine stimulus that will improve buyers’ creditworthiness,” Chojnacki said. “Without cheaper financing, sales will be more demanding and buyers will take longer to make decisions. The coming months will not be a period of easy demand, but a test for developers: those with well-matched offers will defend their sales, while those relying only on improving sentiment will face greater difficulties.”
