Six interest-rate cuts in 2025 were not enough to improve mortgage affordability to the point where queues of buyers returned for new apartments. As a result, supply has grown large—record-high in some major cities. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl stress that, from the buyer’s perspective, it is just as important that the share of the mass-market segment has increased, which has helped stabilize the average price per square meter after years of double-digit rises. Will this trend continue in 2026?
2025 brought surprises—faster cuts, weaker demand
The year delivered a few surprises. Interest rates did fall and mortgage availability did improve—but the pace of cuts was faster than expected. The second surprise was the muted reaction from buyers.
“It was most likely a cold shower for developers who were counting on a sharp rebound in demand,” says Marek Wielgo, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Most buyers opted for temporarily fixed-rate loans, which became cheaper only gradually, partly because pricing is linked to bonds rather than WIBOR. Add to that a weaker labor market—slower wage growth, rising unemployment, and concerns about job security—and many potential buyers postponed decisions. Still, as credit availability gradually improved, interest in purchases picked up, supported by bonuses and price reductions on selected units offered by developers.
Sales up year-on-year, but below the 2023 boom
According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, developers in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Łódź, Poznań, and the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis sold about 49.5 thousand apartments in 2025, 8% more than a year earlier. However, that was around 20% less than in 2023, when the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program boosted demand.
Double-digit sales growth was recorded in Wrocław (+22%), the Tri-City (+18%), and Kraków (+16%). Warsaw posted +6%, Poznań +1%, while Łódź (-4%) and the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis (-2%) declined.
“These are metropolitan areas where purchases are dominated by mortgage buyers. As we can see, the improvement in credit availability was not sufficient,” explains Wielgo.
Q4 demand barely moved; December weighed on results
In Q4, demand across all seven metros rose by a symbolic 1%. Positives were Poznań (+32%), Kraków (+7%), Warsaw (+5%), and Łódź (+4%). Sales fell in the Tri-City (-15%) and Wrocław (-13%), with a very weak December dragging results.
“Last year, buyers didn’t have to decide under time pressure. Over the holiday period, many chose to rest instead,” Wielgo notes.
Developers slowed supply after mid-year
Developers were initially very active, then braked from Q2. In Q3, only ~10.1 thousand units reached the seven largest markets. Rate cuts restored some confidence: in Q4, launches jumped to ~12.8 thousand units (+26% q/q). Still, full-year 2025 supply in the seven metros totaled ~52.3 thousand units, about 20% less than in 2024.
The sharpest pullbacks occurred in Poznań (-34%), Wrocław (-28%), Kraków and the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis (-21%), and Warsaw (-20%). Supply in the Tri-City matched last year, while Łódź edged up (+1%).
Record offers despite lower launches
From a buyer’s perspective, the key question is whether lower launches met rising demand. In most metros—yes. Only Warsaw and Poznań saw fewer launches than sales in 2025. Even there, offers grew year-on-year, helped by units returned to inventory after buyer withdrawals and by price-publication rules that brought previously off-market (often luxury) units into official listings.
By late December, offers increased across cities: Warsaw ~17.5k (+11%), Łódź ~11.9k (+26%), Kraków ~11.5k (+21%), Tri-City ~8.7k (+21%), Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis ~11.2k (+18%), Wrocław ~10.2k (+13%), Poznań ~8.2k (+6%). In Poznań and Kraków, supply edged down slightly in Q4.
Prices: stable averages, hidden discounts
For buyers who can afford a new home, conditions are comfortable, especially as the mass-market share (typically cheaper, mortgage-friendly units) has grown. Official statistics don’t show price cuts—but that doesn’t mean discounts weren’t there.
“Developers most often camouflage them through promotions,” Wielgo reminds.
In 2025, Łódź was the most price-stable metro (December prices nearly unchanged y/y). Next were the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis and Kraków (+1%), followed by Warsaw and Wrocław (+4%). Poznań rose 5%, and the Tri-City 10%.
These increases largely reflect offer mix, not across-the-board hikes. The Tri-City’s double-digit rise—specifically Gdańsk—was driven by many premium apartments near the Gulf of Gdańsk and downtown. Gdańsk overtook Kraków and began to close in on Warsaw.
What about 2026?
With record-high supply in many cities and new projects entering the market, competition has turned into a price war likely to persist. Experts at RynekPierwotny.pl see queues of buyers as unlikely. Rate cuts should help demand, but slower wage growth and labor-market uncertainty will hold it back.
Additional unknowns include technical regulation changes (e.g., shelter requirements), planning reform, whether municipalities will adopt general plans on time, and the future of zoning decisions. These factors may also influence sentiment: if buyers decide it’s worth taking advantage of current offers, sales could accelerate.
Ultimately, the average price per square meter will depend on offer structure. A higher share of mass-market units will stabilize or lower the average; more prime-location listings will lift it—as seen in Gdańsk in 2025, and more recently in Łódź, Poznań, and Warsaw in November–December.
Source: managerplus.pl
