Although the number of initiated investments in the first two months of this year is 10% lower than during the same period last year, the market situation should still be considered stable. This is a positive signal.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has published the latest data on the results of the residential construction sector for the January-February 2025 period.
Construction Starts
In February, developers across the country began projects comprising 10,925 new apartments, while in the first two months of the year, the total number of units under construction reached 23,500. This represents a 10.2% decline compared to the same period last year.
“Considering the imbalance between supply and demand and the record number of apartments available on the market, developers may further reduce their activity in the coming months. Under such circumstances, maintaining the strong pace of new project launches that we observed in 2024 will be impossible,” commented Patryk Kozierkiewicz, a legal advisor at the Polish Association of Developers (PZFD).
According to PZFD, this does not mean that the current year will be difficult for the industry. On the contrary, it should be a time of stabilization and achieving the balance that the market has long been seeking.
“Let’s recall that the industry has faced economic downturns and the outbreak of war in Ukraine in recent years, which was almost immediately followed by the euphoria surrounding the implementation of the Safe Mortgage 2% program,” said Patryk Kozierkiewicz.
Even if this year sees a 15-20% drop in new investments compared to the previous year, the sector would still perform significantly better than in 2022-2023. Reaching such a level would enable the industry to continue its steady, sustainable development.
“Especially since, with the improving economic situation and favorable inflation forecasts, a potential interest rate cut is already on the horizon. This should boost demand for mortgage loans,” added the legal advisor.
Building Permits
Similar to the statistics on construction starts, a partial decline in investor activity can also be observed in the number of building permits issued. In February, approvals were granted for the construction of 13,391 apartments, bringing the total for the first two months of the year to 26,519. This represents a 12.4% drop compared to the same period last year.
“High debt servicing costs and declining demand mean that the current market conditions will favor large developers with well-established market positions. These developers, who follow long-term strategies, may account for a significant portion of the permits issued this year,” said Patryk Kozierkiewicz.
Apartments Completed
A total of 18,300 new apartments were completed and handed over in January and February, nearly the same as in the first two months of 2024.
This trend is expected to continue in the coming months, resulting in the smallest annual variation among the discussed statistics.
This stability is due to the average construction period for residential investments, which is just under two years. Since the number of construction starts in 2022 and 2023 was almost identical, the number of completed apartments in 2024 and 2025 should follow a similar pattern.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/dane-gus-za-luty-2025-deweloperzy-hamuja-z-inwestycjami-37785
