The latest preliminary data from Statistics Poland (GUS), covering the housing construction sector in September and the first three quarters of 2025, shows a notable rebound after a sharp drop in August. However, the data also confirms a trend of growing volatility in the primary real estate investment market — reflecting uncertainty around future economic conditions. The medium-term trajectory remains downward.
Developers back in the lead
According to Jarosław Jędrzyński, analyst at RynekPierwotny.pl, despite the visible rebound from August’s collapse, the downward trend remains intact. Still, the September uptick helps dispel immediate fears of a deep investment downturn in the new-housing market.
Unlike previous months — when developers were the main force driving declines — they are now the ones lifting the market, significantly outperforming private individual builders across all GUS indicators.
The strongest improvement is seen in housing construction starts — the key indicator of current investment sentiment. Expectations of better sales conditions have seemingly outweighed fears of demand cooling in the near future.
- In September, construction began on nearly 20,000 homes — 22% more than in August and slightly above last year’s level.
- Developers started 11,600 units — up 40% month-on-month, and close to last year’s result, though still well below the average of recent years.
Across the first nine months of 2025, construction began on nearly 166,000 homes, down almost 10% year-on-year. Developers accounted for almost 100,000 of these, 14% below last year’s level — confirming that investment conditions remain weak overall.
Building permits: recovery after hitting bottom
A similar improvement is visible in new building permits.
- Nearly 24,000 permits were issued in September — 23% more than in August, and roughly flat year-on-year.
- However, year-to-date, only 191,000 permits have been issued — 13% less than last year.
Notably:
- Private individual investors improved year-to-date permits by almost 8% to 65,000
- Developers dropped over 20%, with 120,000 permits
Stable pace in completed homes
The number of completed homes also improved, confirming relative stability in final-stage projects.
- In September, 19,000 units were completed — 26% more month-on-month, and 22% more year-on-year.
- Year-to-date completions stand at 144,000 units — practically unchanged from last year.
This suggests that ongoing projects are being finalized steadily, despite volatility earlier in the year.
Volatility continues — with cautious optimism emerging
According to Jędrzyński, the recent data shows that Poland’s housing market is currently on an economic “rollercoaster” — still trying to escape a months-long downward cycle.
The sharp September rebound in developer permits and housing starts, after hitting multi-year lows, could indicate returning confidence — likely driven by:
- Expectations of falling interest rates and improved access to mortgages
- Growing demand signals heading into the final quarter of the year
However, it is too early to call a full trend reversal. Investment decisions remain heavily influenced by financing costs, construction inflation and economic uncertainty.
If the improvement in permits and construction starts continues, the end of 2025 and early 2026 could bring further housing market revival.
For now, the market remains balanced between caution and cautious hope — with September’s data offering a positive, but still fragile, signal of recovery.
