In September, developers in Poland launched 11,598 new housing units, marking a 39.2% increase compared to August. While this jump is driven largely by the seasonal slowdown during summer holidays rather than a sudden surge in activity, the third quarter overall confirms the stabilization of investment activity in the residential real estate market.
At the same time, the record-high supply of available homes and improving access to mortgages could continue supporting the supply side in the coming months.
Investment Activity: Returning to a Stable Pace
“This is not a result of an extraordinary investment boom, but rather the effect of August being the final month of the school holidays, when construction traditionally slows,” says Patryk Kozierkiewicz, legal counsel at the Polish Association of Developers (PZFD).
In total, 31,700 units were launched in Q3 2025, virtually the same as in Q2.
“This is a satisfactory result, especially considering that the market supply is at a historic high, which naturally encourages more cautious initiation of new projects,” adds Kozierkiewicz.
Looking ahead, lower interest rates and growing mortgage availability could further support new investment decisions. If positive macroeconomic trends persist, quarterly housing starts are expected to remain above 31,000 units, in line with levels observed throughout the past six months.
Fewer Building Permits — But Improvement Possible in 2026
September brought 15,436 building permits, the second-best monthly result this year.
However, from January to September, the number of permits issued was 22.6% lower than in the same period last year.
“This slowdown reflects market stabilization, a very high level of current inventory, and growing difficulty in securing land for development,” explains Kozierkiewicz. “A renewed uptick may not occur before spring 2026, unless the improving mortgage climate meaningfully revives investor appetite.”
Completions Remain Stable Year-on-Year
From January to September, 90,300 new homes were delivered for use, up 1.1% year-on-year — almost identical to last year’s pace.
This reflects projects that began construction around two years ago. Since housing starts in 2022 and 2023 were at virtually the same level, completion statistics in 2024 and 2025 remain mirrored as well.
“We expect a stronger pickup in occupancy permits in the second half of 2026, following the rebound in housing starts recorded in 2024,” Kozierkiewicz concludes.
