International advisory firm Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation in the first quarter of 2026, which brought clear signs of strengthening in Poland’s warehouse and industrial market. According to the latest data, net demand increased by as much as 78% year on year, while total tenant activity reached 1.58 million sqm. As a result, for the first time since 2022, the vacancy rate fell already in the first quarter, reaching 7.3%. A recovery is also visible in the investment sector, where the volume of logistics transactions jumped by 120% compared with the first quarter of 2025, confirming Poland’s strong position in the region.
Demand: high activity with a visible change in the share of renegotiations
In the first quarter of 2026, total tenant activity reached 1.58 million sqm, representing a 47% year-on-year increase. Net demand, excluding lease renewals, exceeded 850,000 sqm, marking a significant rise of 78% compared with the same period last year.
“After a period dominated by cautious strategies, which resulted in lease renewals accounting for the largest share of gross transaction volume in 2025, we are now seeing a clear change. In line with our expectations, tailor-made projects are gaining importance. In terms of transaction structure, new leases accounted for 42% of total volume in the first three months of 2026, expansions for 12%, while renewals and sale-and-leaseback transactions together represented 46%,” commented Szczepan Gowin, Head of Industrial & Logistics at Cushman & Wakefield.
The highest tenant activity was recorded in the Mazowieckie and Wielkopolskie regions, where volumes exceeded 316,000 sqm and 309,000 sqm respectively.
In the first quarter, demand for warehouse space was dominated by logistics operators, or 3PLs, which accounted for 30.2% of tenant activity. They were followed by the furniture, homeware and DIY sector, with 7.6%, and engineering, construction and machinery, as well as FMCG, each with 7.3%. This highlights the growing sectoral diversification of demand for logistics space.
Supply: developers increasingly focus on BTS projects
In the first quarter of 2026, Poland’s total stock of modern warehouse space reached 37.44 million sqm, representing growth of 6% year on year. During the period analysed, more than 653,000 sqm of new space was delivered, clearly exceeding the result from the previous quarter, which stood at 138,000 sqm, and remaining close to the level recorded a year earlier.
A total of 27 projects were completed, while construction began on another 18 schemes with a combined area of more than 331,000 sqm. The largest newly launched projects include Prologis Park Poznań III and Panattoni Park Katowice Airport, with areas of approximately 46,000 sqm and 40,000 sqm respectively.
“The volume of projects under construction amounted to 1.45 million sqm. Development activity is becoming increasingly selective, which is reflected in the high share of space secured by pre-let agreements. Around 37% of the volume under construction remains available on the market. This points to developers’ continued caution and the growing importance of projects based on real, contracted demand,” said Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield.
Regionally, the Mazowieckie region remains the leader in development activity, with more than 542,000 sqm under construction, clearly ahead of the Śląskie region, which ranks second with approximately 216,000 sqm under development.
Panattoni remains the largest developer in terms of the number of projects under construction, currently developing 16 schemes with a total area of approximately 427,000 sqm.
Vacancies: first quarter brings a year-on-year decline in available space
“At the end of the first quarter of 2026, total available space amounted to 2.72 million sqm, corresponding to a vacancy rate of 7.3% of existing stock. This means a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous quarter and a clear correction year on year, by 1.2 percentage points,” commented Zuzanna Seger, Market Analyst at Cushman & Wakefield.
Regional differences remain visible, reflecting varying supply and demand dynamics across different parts of the country. The lowest availability levels are maintained in the Opolskie region, at 1.1%, and Zachodniopomorskie, at 1.4%. The highest vacancy rates are still recorded in the Lubuskie region, at 15.0%, and Świętokrzyskie, at 17.9%.
Quarterly changes in key logistics regions also deserve attention. In the Dolnośląskie region, the market situation improved significantly, with the vacancy rate falling from 11% to 8%, indicating effective absorption of existing space.
Despite the continued elevated level of availability in selected regions, the market is showing signs of stabilisation, supported by a gradual reduction in speculative development activity and a stable share of net demand.
Rents: pressure on tenant incentives
Headline rents for prime warehouse space remain relatively stable across all major markets. However, increasing pressure to offer tenant incentives continues to reduce effective rental levels.
Investment market: strong start to the year
Poland’s logistics investment market recorded a strong start to 2026, with transaction volume reaching approximately EUR 447 million, representing growth of more than 120% year on year.
“This was largely the result of the finalisation of processes launched in the second half of 2025, but the scale of growth also indicates a real recovery in investor activity and improved market liquidity. The structure of completed transactions included both single assets worth more than EUR 50 million and logistics portfolios, confirming the return of larger tickets and investors’ growing readiness to commit capital to the sector,” explained Jakub Grabara, Associate, Capital Markets Poland, Cushman & Wakefield.
At the same time, a dominant investment trend has clearly emerged: a focus on long-income strategies.
“Most completed transactions concerned assets offering stable cash flow, in particular BTS projects and sale-and-leaseback transactions with long leases, usually exceeding 12 years,” added Jakub Grabara.
At the same time, moderate but stable investor activity is being observed in the value-add segment, focused on assets offering potential for rental growth, improvement of lease parameters or repositioning. However, this segment remains clearly secondary to long-income strategies.
Despite continued selectivity, visible in investors’ approach to tenant quality and WAULT length, capitalisation rates remained stable — at around 6.00% for the best assets and within the range of approximately 6.00%–6.75% for most core products. In the medium term, however, there is potential room for compression.
The strong start to the year and the dominance of bond-like products indicate sustained demand for secure income strategies and create a solid foundation for further growth in investment activity in the following quarters of 2026.
