In the first half of this year, the number of applications submitted to the CEIDG regarding the establishment of sole proprietorships fell by over 3% compared to the same period last year. Experts believe that fears about rising business costs may have contributed to this. Some people are holding off on taking action and are watching the further development of the economic situation. During this period, the number of applications regarding the resumption of sole proprietorships increased by almost 6%. According to experts, factors such as better economic conditions and improvements in consumer sentiment contributed to this. Moreover, the experts add that the data needs to be seen in a broader perspective. In the first half of 2024, nearly 100,000 firms of this type were closed, but at the same time, over 150,000 were established. Thus, the final balance does not look bad at all.
According to data released by the Ministry of Development and Technology, in the first half of 2024, the CEIDG received 150.8 thousand applications for the establishment of sole proprietorships. This is 3.3% less than in the same period last year, when there were 155.9 thousand such cases. As Łukasz Goszczyński, a lawyer and restructuring advisor at the GKPG Commercial Law Office, points out, in the first quarter of this year alone, the number of applications submitted to the CEIDG for the opening of a sole proprietorship fell by over 6% year on year. Thus, looking at the whole half of the year, it is clear that the situation is gradually improving. However, the current situation is below market expectations.
In the current data, there is nothing special or surprising. The number of sole proprietorships registered in the first half of this year is correlated with the pace of economic growth, ie the annual real GDP growth rate. It can be seen as a barometer of the economy. This is supported by economic theory and common sense. When a business entity anticipates an increase in demand and sees an opportunity to increase profit, it raises its activity – comments Dr. Konrad Walczyk from the Institute of Public Finance and Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic Development at the Warsaw School of Economics.
As Adrian Parol, lawyer and restructuring advisor, reassures, the decrease in the number of applications in the first half of the year may be related to Poles’ concerns about rising costs of running a business, as well as balancing finances from the revenue and cost side. Thus, some people have refrained from setting up a sole proprietorship and are watching the further development of the economic situation. The conditions for running a business have certainly not worsened, but they have also not significantly improved.
In my opinion, there has always been a great need in our society to run our own business, especially in its simplest form. For many years on the market, it is also visible that both the establishment and the liquidation of sole proprietorships look more or less the same. However, it is interesting that in the first half of 2024, nearly 100,000 firms of this type were closed, but at the same time over 150,000 were established. So this final balance does not look bad at all. Some companies are liquidated and others are created in their place – adds Lukasz Goszczyński.
As Dr. Walczyk points out, the Central Statistical Office publishes data on new business registrations in all legal forms according to sections, without detailed information on sole proprietorships. In recent years, financial, insurance, real estate market services, administration and associated professional, scientific and technical activities have averaged 22.3% of new registrations. Meanwhile, construction accounted for 19.9%, trade for 16.5% and other services excluding public administration for 15.2%. The expert believes that sole proprietorships could be concentrated in these sections with a significant share in the number of new registrations. In the last three years, sole proprietorships accounted for as much as 83% of newly registered entities.
Besides, ministry data shows that in the first six months of this year, the CEIDG received 102.6 thousand applications to resume a sole proprietorship. This is 5.9% more than in the same period last year, when there were 96.9 thousand. – Here, on the other hand, one can point out that in the first quarter of this year, such activities were over 9% more than a year earlier. So, it is clear that the motivation of entrepreneurs has slightly decreased in this particular matter. However, for the economy, this is a small difference – supplements the expert from the Commercial Law Office.
In my opinion, this increase results from the improvement in the trade climate and better consumer sentiment. These are the main factors encouraging the resumption of sole proprietorships. Submitting an application to suspend business activity does not have to end in liquidation of the business. It is often an action aimed at reducing costs incurred, mainly due to ZUS contributions – emphasizes Adrian Parol.
On the other hand, the expert from GKPG draws attention to the fact that we still do not have a settled issue with the health contribution. Moreover, inflation is starting to accelerate again. Taking all of this into account, Lukasz Goszczyński predicts that the situation regarding the resumption of sole proprietorships may remain unchanged unless there is a sudden event in the market. However, there is also a risk that it will worsen. Although economists predict an acceleration of economic growth, in the lawyer’s opinion, this will not affect the resumption of sole proprietorships.
Economists and market participants mostly expect that economic growth in Poland will accelerate in the next few years. It is also necessary to forecast an increase in the number of new registrations of sole proprietorships. I am talking about the trend and its direction, not about a constant or even steady growth from quarter to quarter – emphasizes Dr. Konrad Walczyk from the Institute of Public Finance.
On the other hand, Adrian Parol recalls that between the first half of the previous year and the first half of this year, there was a change of government. The previous government rapidly implemented new regulations, which meant uncertainty and even chaos for many entrepreneurs. The actions of the current team are more predictable, which may also be important in the context of setting up and resuming sole proprietorships. Entrepreneurs want to operate in a legal environment that does not change from day to day. As the expert predicts, in the second half of this year, there should be more new and resumed businesses, but without any kind of frenzy. Among other things, the investments announced by the government, especially those related to the KPO, could contribute to this.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/w-i-pol-br-na-rynku-pojawilo-sie-przeszlo-150-tys-nowych-firm-wznowiono-blisko-103-tys-dzialalnosci-ceidg-88937
