According to a preliminary estimate, the CPI inflation rate in December 2024 stood at 4.8% year-on-year (y/y). This reading came in slightly below the consensus forecast of 4.9%. It represents a modest increase compared to the previous month, where the inflation rate was 4.7% y/y. On a monthly basis, a rise of 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) was recorded.
In the early months of 2025, inflation is likely to accelerate further, potentially reaching 5.5% in March. Thereafter, a gradual decline in the inflation rate is expected, trending towards the upper limit of the inflation target (3.5%) by late 2025. However, interest rate cuts are still awaited. The baseline scenario suggests that a cycle of rate reductions might begin in the second half of the year.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst, Trader Michael / Ström Brokerage House
Source: CEO Magazine
