Poland has not seen a December like this in two decades. The number of homes completed by developers reached its highest level since 2005. Although the overall result for residential construction was formally higher in 2008, that figure was driven by a one-off wave of registrations of older buildings. December 2025 therefore stands as a genuine, market-driven record.
December data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) on the scale of new residential construction indicate that the market experienced an exceptional month. In every category tracked by GUS—homes completed, building permits issued, and construction starts—aggregated results for all investor groups were stronger than in November and higher than in December 2024. The number of dwellings completed in December was 15% higher year on year, the number of building permits issued rose by 20%, and construction starts were up 4% compared with a year earlier.
How should these results be interpreted?
A closer look at full-year figures is essential. In 2025, construction began on 212.4 thousand dwellings, representing a 9% decline compared with 2024. GUS recorded a similar 9.5% drop in the total number of building permits issued during the year. Only the number of homes and houses completed was higher—by 4% year on year—thanks to the outstanding results recorded in December.
The data released by GUS reinforce the view that assessing the condition of Poland’s residential construction sector based on monthly figures alone is highly risky. The two largest groups of investors—households and property developers—posted better results month on month in almost every category. The sole exception was household construction starts, which fell by 21%. Given the unusually cold December weather, this decline is hardly surprising.
It is worth emphasizing that in full-year terms, residential construction performance in 2025 surpassed that of 2024 only in the category of completed homes and houses. In the remaining categories tracked by GUS—permits and construction starts—results were clearly weaker than a year earlier, mainly due to reduced activity by developers. Optimistic signals of revival in municipal and social rental housing (TBS and SIM schemes) will not offset this worrying trend, as the scale of their activity remains limited.
According to the latest GUS data, the number of homes and houses completed in Poland in December reached 203.4 thousand units, up 28% compared with November. Year on year, completions were 15% higher than in December 2024. For the full twelve months, completions exceeded the 2024 total by 4%, driven by a markedly stronger second half of the year. From July to December, the number of completed homes and houses was 26% higher than in the first half of the year. This confirms our November forecast that 2025 would slightly outperform 2024 in terms of completed dwellings.
Developers close the year with a record finish
December’s strong figures were driven primarily by developers, who completed more than 16.4 thousand homes and houses. This represents an impressive increase of 20% compared with November and 13.5% year on year. Importantly, this double-digit month-on-month growth followed solid results in the preceding three months and marked the best monthly performance by developers in 2025.
Against the backdrop of 2020–2023, when more than 220 thousand dwellings were completed annually, the 2025 result of around 208 thousand units represents a solid average.
Developers accounted for 67% of all residential units completed in December. By nature, individual investors’ results are more stable than those of developers. In the first three quarters of 2025, households accounted for between 30% and 38% of total residential construction output in Poland. In December, households (classified by GUS as individual investors) completed 38% more homes and apartments than in November and 13% more than in December 2024.
The month-on-month increase halted the downward trend in individual housing construction observed since the beginning of 2025. As a result, households’ share of total residential construction rose to 30% in December, up from just 27% in November.
Investment plans under scrutiny
Efforts to obtain building permits in December produced markedly better results than in November, making December the strongest month of 2025 in this category. In November 2025, nearly 28 thousand permits were issued to all investor groups combined, including 20 thousand for developers and 6.9 thousand for individual investors. As a result, the total number of permits issued in December was 35% lower than in November and 20% lower than in December 2024.
In total, permits were issued for just 265.6 thousand residential units in 2025, a clear decline of 8.8% year on year. Developers obtained permits for 171.5 thousand homes and houses (down 16.6% year on year), while individual investors secured permits for 85.8 thousand units (up 8.6%).
Monthly GUS data on construction starts throughout 2025 show that from April onward, new investment activity weakened. Hopes for a reversal emerged in July, when a strong month-on-month increase brought results back in line with the previous year. September and October also showed improvement, supported by higher developer activity. November data dampened expectations of a broader recovery, and December brought only a modest improvement.
In December, construction starts by all investor groups were marginally higher than in November (up 0.6%) and slightly higher than in December 2024 (up 4.1%). In total, just 13.1 thousand residential units broke ground in December 2025. While this was only marginally above November’s 13 thousand and last year’s 12.6 thousand, the slight increase was mainly due to higher developer activity, which rose by 11% month on month.
A two-speed market: who was building in 2025?
Aggregated results for the full year confirm Otodom’s mid-year forecasts: activity in the construction starts segment fell by 9.2% compared with 2024. While negative, the decline was milder than the double-digit drop initially expected. Without the stable activity of households, the reduction in nationwide construction starts would have been far deeper.
In 2025, individual investors launched 2.6% more construction projects than in 2024. In contrast, housing cooperatives, local government units, and social and municipal housing entities (TBS and SIM) started fewer projects than a year earlier.
It is also worth comparing construction starts with the number of permits issued. In 2025, the gap between these figures amounted to 51.1 thousand units, meaning that nearly one in five permits issued (19%) did not translate into the start of construction. Among developers, the share of postponed permits was even higher, at 23%. By comparison, among individual investors the figure was just over 8%, corresponding to an excess of 7.1 thousand permits.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rekordowy-grudzien-2025-w-budownictwie-50256
