Black Friday is not only a major shopping event, but also an important day for financial markets. The sales results often serve as the first signals for the whole holiday season’s trajectory. With the dynamic growth of online shopping, Cyber Monday is becoming more important and, with a forecasted $13.2 billion turnover, it may dethrone Black Friday as the biggest sales day. This year, we anticipate higher sales in the US than in Europe – the American economy is performing better and creating favorable conditions for consumers.
The approaching Black Friday (November 29) and Cyber Monday (December 2) mark the start of the pre-holiday shopping frenzy. In Poland, however, we observe a clear trend – deals appear increasingly earlier. This year, many stores started sales a week ahead of the actual event, as part of Black Friday Week.
Online shopping is revolutionizing the market – both in Poland and globally. Already, 71% of consumers in the US plan to shop online on Black Friday, which would generate $10.8 billion turnover – a 9.9% increase compared to the previous year. In Poland, the e-commerce market is also gaining significance. Many online stores not only offer attractive discounts, but also free delivery, which additionally attracts customers.
For this reason, the “center of gravity” in commerce is shifting, and in the future, Cyber Monday, with its forecasted $13.2 billion turnover, could surpass Black Friday, becoming the most important sales day on the calendar. Data from these two days provide valuable information about the condition of the retail sector and potential purchasing trends for stock market investors.
Global data from 2023 shows an 8% increase in online trade revenues, up to $70.9 billion. Leading positions are occupied by American companies such as Walmart (+70% share price increase since the beginning of the year), Costco (+46%), and Amazon (+33%). European players, such as Zalando (+37%) and Inditex (+34%), achieve solid results but lag behind American giants. Zalando holds a particular potential in the clothing and accessories segment, drawing 55% of European consumers during Black Friday. Similar trends are seen in Poland in the results of the largest retailers.
Chinese companies, such as JD.com (+20%) and Alibaba (+10%), struggle with difficulties due to a decline in domestic demand. Despite Beijing’s introduction of stimulus packages, the situation in the Chinese market remains challenging. It is worth noting that Polish consumers, like most Europeans, prefer to use Chinese platforms, such as AliExpress, which are gaining popularity thanks to very low prices and a wide range of goods. However, due to possible restrictions, the future of Chinese platforms in the European market remains uncertain.
This year, geopolitical tensions, including potential tariffs in the US and market uncertainties, may influence purchasing decisions. Consumers in Poland, experienced by several years of high inflation, may make quick purchasing decisions fearing price increases, which drives sales in the short term.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are days of immense significance both for consumers and investors. Online shopping is becoming increasingly popular in Poland, fitting into global trends. Although Black Friday remains a symbol of the start of the holiday season, the growing role of Cyber Monday indicates a change in priorities among consumers.
Author: Paweł Majtkowski, eToro analyst in Poland.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/cyber-monday-moze-zdetronizowac-black-friday-53465
