As expected, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate remaining at 3.75%. The decision came as no surprise to market observers. However, the press conference held by National Bank of Poland President Professor Adam Glapiński may provide some grounds for optimism in the housing market, both for existing holders of variable-rate mortgages and for people planning to purchase their dream home.
As is often the case, the devil is in the detail — or, in this instance, in what could be read between the lines of the central bank governor’s remarks. The situation is analysed by Dr Maciej Kietliński, an economic expert at Otodom.
According to data from the AMRON report, a growing number of borrowers are choosing variable-rate mortgages. This trend has been supported by the National Bank of Poland’s expansionary monetary policy in recent quarters.
As a result, the NBP’s main interest rate fell by a full 2 percentage points within a year, from 5.75% in April 2025 to 3.75% in March 2026.
It is therefore hardly surprising that borrowers monitor interest-rate decisions so closely.
As a broad estimate, for someone who has taken out a PLN 600,000 variable-rate mortgage over 30 years, a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut would reduce the monthly repayment by approximately PLN 100.
Whether that is a significant amount is a matter of individual judgement. To paraphrase a well-known humorous saying, however, having PLN 100 rather than not having PLN 100 creates a difference of PLN 200.
This is why market participants were waiting with interest not so much for the Monetary Policy Council’s July decision, which was unlikely to surprise anyone, but for what Professor Adam Glapiński would say during the press conference. The NBP president had quite a lot to say.
The Risk of Interest-Rate Increases Has Receded
Until recently, following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices, the market had begun pricing in the possibility of interest-rate increases.
At certain points, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude exceeded USD 110 per barrel.
However, in light of the recent stabilisation in relations between the United States and Iran, and despite occasional diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz appears to have become relatively stable.
As a result, the threat of interest-rate increases in Poland seems, for the time being, to have receded.
June’s consumer inflation reading also provides grounds for optimism. CPI inflation stood at 2.5%, exactly in line with the NBP’s inflation target, a point emphasised by Adam Glapiński during the press conference.
Four Factors Will Shape the Inflation Outlook
The NBP president identified four factors that, in his view, will influence inflation expectations in the coming quarters.
These are energy commodity prices, including oil, coal and gas; the performance of the domestic economy; labour-market data; and the direction of fiscal policy.
It is worth recalling that the government’s fuel-price support package expired at the end of June. Consequently, from 1 July, the VAT rate on fuel returned from 8% to 23%.
This measure is estimated to have the potential to increase CPI inflation by approximately 0.7 percentage points.
Despite this, the Monetary Policy Council appeared to believe that the current readings for the first three factors were not having a negative effect on future inflation expectations.
Glapiński Signals the Possibility of Another Rate Cut
When asked by journalists about the possibility of further interest-rate cuts this year, Professor Adam Glapiński said:
“The members of the Council are currently cautious doves. Each is a slightly different kind of dove. One may be somewhat more hawkish. Current global developments are pushing the Council in a more dovish direction. I may be a slightly less cautious dove, and that is what my intuition tells me.”
At the end of the conference, he added that he might be the only member of the Monetary Policy Council who currently sees scope for one more 25-basis-point rate cut this year. He stressed that this was solely his personal view.
“I do not rule out submitting a motion for an interest-rate cut after the summer, although I do not know how it would be received,” he said.
It therefore appears that, unless the geopolitical situation changes dramatically over the coming months, the Monetary Policy Council may gradually adopt an increasingly dovish position. This shift could already be detected in the NBP president’s latest remarks.
Under an optimistic scenario, this could result in one more interest-rate cut of 25 basis points before the end of the year.
A Positive Signal for the Housing Market
Transaction prices in Poland’s housing market have remained relatively stable, according to NBP data.
Against this background, a further reduction in interest rates could become a positive factor for people who decide to purchase a home after returning from their summer holidays.
Lower rates would reduce mortgage payments for existing variable-rate borrowers and could also improve the borrowing capacity of prospective buyers.
While a single 25-basis-point cut would not fundamentally transform the market, it could strengthen consumer confidence and make housing purchases more affordable at a time when property prices remain broadly stable.
