Corporate banking in Poland is entering a new phase of dynamic growth. After years of limited credit demand from businesses, the market now stands on the brink of a significant shift. Investment activity is gaining momentum, and the scale of public support for strategic economic projects is unprecedented. Combined with demographic pressure, rising labor costs, and ongoing digitalization and automation, these factors create the conditions for a sustained revival in the corporate financing segment. In their latest special report, economists at Bank Pekao S.A. forecast that in the coming years, the corporate credit market will grow at a rate exceeding 9% annually.
Bank analysts often focus primarily on supply-side issues—such as capital availability, balance sheet structures, or interest rate policy—while overlooking equally important demand-side factors that, in many cases, determine market dynamics.
“The banking sector provides credit supply to the economy. That is why banking analyses of the credit segment often overemphasize supply-side issues, such as interest rates or lending conditions. Meanwhile, Poland is now on the threshold of a kind of breakthrough: for the first time in a long while, strengthening credit demand will be the decisive factor shaping lending activity. We emphasize this strongly in our report,” says Sebastian A. Roy, economist at Bank Pekao S.A. and co-author of the report.
“Of course, in macroeconomics ‘it takes two to tango,’ and an acceleration in lending cannot occur without both strong demand and strong supply. Next year, however, we will see a combination of favorable demand factors (investments) and supply factors (monetary easing). As a result, we expect a further acceleration in the growth of corporate loan portfolios without significant adjustments to credit margins.”
The bank’s analysts forecast that the growth rate of banks’ receivables from non-financial enterprises will accelerate from around 8% year-on-year in 2025 to 9.4% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027.
The First Half of the Year Was a Disappointment for Investments
Signs of recovery are expected only in the second half of 2025
“It’s not that investments in Poland won’t happen. It’s simply that preparing large investment processes and settling funds from the National Recovery Plan required more time,” explains Ernest Pytlarczyk, Chief Economist at Bank Pekao S.A. and one of the report’s authors.
“Investment dynamics in Poland are closely linked to the EU funds cycle, and that cycle recently lost momentum. To illustrate: four years after the start of an EU financial perspective, we should have already spent 20–25% of available funds, while we have spent only 10%. However, we are now entering the recovery phase. As a result, next year investment in constant prices will grow by nearly 9% year-on-year, adding 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth.”
According to the report’s forecasts, investment growth of 11.1% year-on-year next year will be accompanied by an 8.8% increase in investment loan portfolios. Investment loans will account for more than half of all corporate receivables owed to the banking sector.
Changes in Companies’ Financial Results Will Support Lending Activity
“Last year, Polish companies significantly deleveraged, but at the same time persistent cost and wage pressures contributed to lower return on equity,” notes Krzysztof Mrówczyński, Sector Analysis Manager at Bank Pekao S.A. and co-author of the report.
“Polish entrepreneurs are cautious in their use of financial instruments offered by banks, but last year’s decline in debt clearly shows that businesses now have room to use stronger financial leverage and optimize their capital structure.”
According to the data presented in the report, between 2023 and 2024 the value of companies’ liabilities relative to their assets decreased by 3 percentage points to 53%. Meanwhile, ROE fell to 9.3%, compared to around 14% in 2021–2022.
Detailed Economic Processes Will Strengthen Lending Activity
Digitalization, fleet renewal, and climate requirements drive demand
“When looking at business banking conditions, we should see both the forest and the trees—details and broader trends,” says Paweł Kowalski, Sector Analysis expert at Bank Pekao S.A. and co-author of the report.
“Demand for financing in the coming years will be driven by a wide range of economic processes and investment needs, such as cyclical vehicle purchases linked to fleet amortization, investments related to the ongoing digitalization of the economy, or the need to adapt industrial processes to EU climate and environmental policies. This will generate increased demand not only for investment loans, but also for products such as leasing, project finance, bond issuance support, green financial instruments, and modern transactional and payment services.”
Major Investments: Major Opportunities, Major Unknowns
“The investment boom in 2026–2027 will be absolutely crucial in strengthening companies’ demand for credit in Poland. However, this investment cycle will be unlike any other. Why? Because it will focus on very large, expensive transformation projects concentrated in only a few sectors—energy generation and transport, infrastructure, district heating, and building energy efficiency. We are talking about projects worth billions of złoty, such as construction of new power plants, tunnels, or modern electricity networks. These projects carry significant risk, and not all banks will have sufficient risk appetite to participate,” says Pytlarczyk.
“We do expect, however, that public funds (including loans and grants from the National Recovery Plan) will help ‘bank-qualify’ some of these projects.”
As a result, part of the highest-risk investments may be financed through hybrid mechanisms combining public and commercial capital. This means that the role of banks in financing economic transformation will not be reduced, but redefined—shifting from direct lending to more selective, partnership-based project participation.
In the short term, preferential loans may partially crowd out commercial credit. However, in the longer term, investments launched with public support will generate additional demand for working-capital and development financing throughout the value chain.
“Banking on the Investment Wave”
The report “Bankowość na fali inwestycji” was edited by Sebastian A. Roy in the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis at Bank Pekao S.A. Co-authors include Ernest Pytlarczyk, Krzysztof Mrówczyński, and Paweł Kowalski.
The full report is available in the Pekao Economic Service.
Source: ceo.com.pl
