Copper is once again flowing in large volumes to the United States. The price of the metal in the US has reached around USD 6.33 per pound, only about 5% below the record high of USD 6.67 recorded on May 13. At the same time, the gap between prices in London and the US market is widening. Investors are speculating that Donald Trump’s administration could introduce tariffs on refined copper from January 2027, encouraging market participants to redirect supplies to the United States and position themselves ahead of possible policy changes.
The copper market is currently caught between two powerful forces. On the one hand, it is being supported by the boom in artificial intelligence and data centres. On the other, it remains under pressure from concerns over inflation, geopolitics and global trade.
Copper has long been known as “Doctor Copper” because of its perceived ability to diagnose the condition of the global economy. This time, however, Doctor Copper is also saying a great deal about global trade policy, tariffs and artificial intelligence. The most important trend in the market today is the renewed widening of the price gap between COMEX in the United States and the London Metal Exchange. Copper in the US is around 3% more expensive in spot contracts and as much as 7% more expensive in contracts for March 2027.
At such a price difference, it becomes profitable to buy copper on global markets and ship it to the United States, where it can be sold at a higher price. As a result, copper exports to the US have once again become highly profitable and could reach 150,000–200,000 tonnes per month.
The situation resembles what happened last year, when almost every available tonne of metal was being shipped to the United States. At that time, investors were also expecting tariffs, but the Trump administration eventually imposed them only on copper products, not on refined copper itself. Now those concerns have returned. The US Department of Commerce is expected to present a report on the copper market by June 30, 2026. Earlier scenarios included the possibility of tariffs on refined copper from 2027. The market is considering a scenario in which tariffs could be introduced at 15% from the beginning of 2027 and 30% from the beginning of 2028.
The Trump administration argues that possible tariffs are justified by national security concerns and the need to rebuild domestic industry. However, such a process takes time. In the current situation, the United States has growing inventories but remains heavily dependent on imports. The share of imports in US copper consumption has increased from 45% to 57%. At the same time, the US has only two major copper smelters, and there are no clear signs of a rapid increase in domestic production.
As a result of tariff concerns, US imports of refined copper exceeded 533,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, more than twice as much as a year earlier. Since the Trump administration launched its review of copper imports on national security grounds, COMEX copper inventories have risen by more than 550%. The movement of inventories to the United States is reducing copper availability in other parts of the world.
Copper prices are also influenced by developments in the Middle East. When oil prices fall, the market tends to interpret this as positive news because it reduces fears of inflation and economic slowdown. In such conditions, copper prices may rise. However, when the risk of conflict escalation increases, investors become more cautious and copper prices usually come under pressure. More expensive oil means higher costs for companies and consumers, which worsens the outlook for the broader economy.
Two opposing forces are therefore shaping the copper market today. On the one hand, copper is being supported by the boom in artificial intelligence and data centres. On the other, it is being weighed down by inflation, geopolitics, logistical problems and concerns about weaker economic growth.
Artificial intelligence is one of the most important long-term arguments in favour of higher copper prices. Data centres require enormous amounts of power, infrastructure and wiring, and copper is one of the key metals needed to build this ecosystem. This is one reason why investor demand remains so strong. Copper may remain expensive because it is supported by tariffs, flows to the US, falling inventories and technology-related demand. At the same time, prices will remain highly sensitive to political decisions, data from China and changes in investor sentiment.
It is worth remembering, however, that the current rise in prices is being driven mainly by expectations of future copper shortages rather than an actual lack of supply today. This is an important distinction. Markets often rise not because metal is unavailable at a given moment, but because investors fear it may become scarce in the coming quarters. In such a scenario, a short-term correction remains possible, especially if tensions around tariffs ease or if some investors decide to take profits after the strong rally.
The coming year in the copper market may therefore be a period of high prices, elevated volatility and the growing importance of the United States as a centre for stockpiling strategic metals. The key factors will be the Trump administration’s decision and the Department of Commerce report on tariffs, expected by the end of June. If the market concludes that tariffs will indeed come into force from January 2027, the US price premium may persist or even increase.
For investors, the most important point today is that copper prices are no longer merely a reflection of the outlook for the global economy. They have also become a question of trade policy, artificial intelligence and access to strategic raw materials.
Source: Managerplus.pl
