The EFL Barometer subindex for Poland’s construction sector stood at 51.3 points in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 5.5-point decline quarter-on-quarter. This is the lowest level in over two years — the last lower reading was recorded in Q3 2023 (48 points). Although the sector remains above the neutral threshold of 50 points, the data clearly signal a cooling of sentiment among construction companies.
“A subindex reading of 51.3 points indicates that the construction industry has entered a slowdown phase after an already weak first half of the year, when construction output was down 0.7% year-on-year. The current drop in sentiment is quite noticeable, partly due to seasonal factors and growing market uncertainty. As the winter season approaches, companies are more cautious with new projects and contracts and are signaling weaker financial liquidity. Still, the sector remains above the 50-point threshold, meaning that entrepreneurs continue to see development potential,” said Piotr Warmuła, Sales Director for the Machinery and Equipment Market at EFL.
Less optimism in sales and liquidity
In Q4 2025, only 16% of construction firms expect sales growth, compared with 35% in the previous quarter. The vast majority (84%) anticipate stable revenues at current levels.
The weaker sales outlook translates into a deterioration in financial liquidity expectations. Only 12.5% of companies expect liquidity to improve (down from 33% in Q3), while the rest foresee stability.
Investment activity declines sharply
Construction companies are showing growing caution in their investment plans. In Q4 2025, only 5% of firms plan to increase capital expenditure — nearly four times fewer than in the previous quarter (19%).
Furthermore, 29% of respondents expect investment to decrease, while 66% plan to maintain current spending levels. These results indicate that, at the end of the year, businesses are focusing more on preserving liquidity and sustaining ongoing operations rather than launching new projects.
Slight increase in demand for external financing
Against the backdrop of declining investment and sales sentiment, interest in external financing has slightly increased.
7.5% of companies report a higher demand for loans or leasing, compared to just 3% in the previous quarter.
This may suggest that some firms are turning to external funds to maintain financial stability during the seasonal slowdown.
EFL Barometer: Construction down, economy slightly up
While the construction subindex dropped to 51.3 points, the overall EFL Barometer index — which covers all business sectors — rose to 53.4 points, up 1.9 points quarter-on-quarter.
This indicates that overall business sentiment in Poland remains stable, even though the construction industry is clearly lagging behind other sectors.
Key figures – EFL Barometer for Construction (Q4 2025)
| Category | Q4 2025 Result | Quarterly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Subindex | 51.3 pts | −5.5 pts |
| Investments | 5% of firms forecast growth | (19% in Q3) |
| Sales | 16% of firms forecast growth | (35% in Q3) |
| Financial liquidity | 12.5% expect improvement | (33% in Q3) |
| External financing | 7.5% report higher demand | (3% in Q3) |
Conclusions
Poland’s construction sector is ending 2025 with noticeably weaker optimism.
A subindex below 52 points suggests that firms expect a slowdown in investment activity over the coming months.
However, as the indicator remains above the 50-point threshold, the sector is still considered to be in a moderate growth phase.
Entrepreneurs — despite seasonal challenges — do not anticipate a dramatic downturn, but are clearly shifting focus toward stability rather than expansion.
Source: EFL Barometer Q4 2025 — CEO.com.pl: “Nastroje w budownictwie słabną”
