In 2025, the Polish commercial real estate investment market was dominated by capital from Scandinavia, the Baltic states, and the Czech Republic. The gap left by Western investors was also increasingly filled by domestic players, with Polish investors already accounting for 19% of total transaction volume. Polish entrepreneurs are becoming more active, seeking passive income and long-term stability. Although the total investment volume declined year-on-year to EUR 4.45 billion, early signs of a return of Western capital are becoming visible. Another positive trend is the growing willingness of banks to finance real estate projects.
Office sector: strong fundamentals, especially in Warsaw
Solid growth fundamentals are evident in the office sector, particularly in Warsaw, where offices accounted for 79% of total investment volume in 2025. The leasing market remains very strong, while new supply is limited. What little space is delivered is leased almost immediately. Rents are rising, and vacancy rates are falling—reaching as low as 3–4% in prime locations. This environment is expected to stimulate increased investor activity, especially in the second half of 2026.
Retail: high transaction activity and attractive yields
The retail sector is already seeing a significant number of transactions, primarily involving retail park portfolios (54% of sector volume), so-called convenience and typical retail formats. Even more such transactions are expected in 2026. Activity is also increasing in the shopping center segment. With high capitalization rates and solid market fundamentals, retail assets may offer attractive returns.
Logistics: stability and value-add opportunities
Investment activity in the logistics sector is focused on two main transaction types. The first targets assets offering secure, long-term, stable leases. The second involves the acquisition of properties that are currently attractively priced and offer real growth potential.
PRS emerges as a key sector for 2026
One of the most important investment segments in 2026 is expected to be the institutional private rented sector (PRS). Market participants are awaiting the completion of a major transaction involving the acquisition of Resi4Rent by a German company. This prospective deal is a significant event for the Polish market and has already generated strong interest among a wide group of investors. Poland is attracting funds that have not previously been active in the country. In 2026, increased developer consolidation and a higher number of joint ventures are also expected, making it a promising year for the sector.
Polish business seizes the opportunity
Domestic capital now accounts for around one-fifth of all transactions and is set to grow further. Fewer large international players on the investment market—and therefore less competition—are creating opportunities for Polish investors. These opportunities are increasingly being taken up by local entrepreneurs with profitable core businesses and accumulated capital, who view commercial real estate as an additional asset class offering stable returns. Many of them have reached a stage of business maturity and are focused on securing their families’ financial future.
Market drivers
A positive trend likely to continue into 2026 is the much more active approach of banks to financing commercial real estate investments. Competition among lenders is intensifying, and financing terms are improving. Poland is perceived as a healthy and resilient market compared with other countries in the region—an assessment shared by international lenders.
The investment landscape in 2026 will also be influenced by the situation in Ukraine. Increased activity is already visible among tenants that have relocated their operations to Poland from higher-risk regions. The future reconstruction of Ukraine represents a major opportunity for Poland, potentially becoming a strong signal for new investments, job creation, and a broader stimulus for the entire economy.
Source: managerplus.pl
