From the beginning of the year to the end of September, the value of investment transactions in Poland’s commercial real estate market reached EUR 2.6 billion. Although investors remain cautious about new projects, the market is sending clear signals of stabilization and pointing to a potential rebound toward the end of the year. According to the BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland report “Review. The Investment Market in Poland – Q3 2025”, total investment volume in 2025 may exceed EUR 4 billion.
Market Stability
Despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, Poland’s commercial real estate market remains resilient, continuing to attract investors with a balanced approach. In the third quarter alone, transactions accounted for 25% of the total investment volume recorded since the start of the year.
Offices in the Lead
Office assets hold the largest share of the market structure, representing 35% of all transactions since the beginning of the year (EUR 899 million). Among the key transactions in the period was the acquisition of shares in the company owning the Mennica Legacy Tower in Warsaw, valued at PLN 180 million.
Logistics and Retail Remain Strong
Retail and logistics assets continue to attract significant investor interest, supported by consistently high levels of private consumption and the dynamic development of e-commerce. By the end of September, the industrial and logistics sector maintained its strong position, reaching a volume of EUR 873 million—an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. Stability also characterizes the retail sector, where transaction volume reached EUR 453 million.
Retail parks, in particular, are drawing strong interest from buyers. Their lower operating costs and strong ties to local communities make them highly resilient to economic fluctuations.
Domestic Capital Becoming More Active
Polish investors are gaining importance—accounting for 36% of transaction value in the third quarter of 2025 and 22% since the beginning of the year. Their investments increasingly focus on “value-add” and “opportunistic” projects.
Overall, investors from Europe dominate the capital structure, contributing EUR 1.69 billion (66% of total invested capital). They are followed by investors from the Americas with a 15% share (EUR 385 million), and investors from the Middle East with 11% (EUR 276 million).
Small and Mid-Sized Transactions Lead the Market
The transaction volume since the beginning of the year varies significantly by transaction size. The strongest growth was recorded in the EUR 40–100 million segment, which reached EUR 1.137 billion—a 57% year-on-year increase. These types of transactions dominate the office and industrial-logistics sectors.
Mid-sized transactions in the EUR 20–40 million range remained stable, recording a slight increase of 1.3% (EUR 577 million). The retail sector recorded the highest volume in this category.
The largest decline—55% compared to last year—was observed among major investments exceeding EUR 100 million, indicating persistent caution around assets typically associated with core market activity. Since the beginning of the year, transactions in this segment amounted to EUR 434 million.
Capitalization Rates Unchanged
In the third quarter of 2025, capitalization rates for prime assets in Poland remained stable and unchanged from the previous quarter, standing at: 5.25% for e-commerce logistics, 6.25% for offices and warehouses, 6.50% for shopping centers, and 7.00% for retail parks. The lack of yield compression confirms the ongoing caution among investors.
“Most transactions on the market involve value-add assets, where capitalization rates differ significantly from prime levels. There are only a few investors with capital for core assets, and this trend is visible not only in Poland but across other European markets as well,” notes Karolina Wojciechowska, Director, Capital Markets Department, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Optimistic Outlook Toward Year-End
The outlook for the Polish economy remains favorable. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% until the end of 2026, which will support further stabilization of financing costs. Experts note that new investors are entering the market, which in the long run may enhance competitiveness and improve sector liquidity.
“In the longer term, the Polish economy will benefit from large development programs financed through the National Recovery Plan, Europe’s industrial revitalization, and the dynamic automation and digitalization processes in which Poland stands out with its highly skilled IT workforce. Implementing these changes will require modern, high-quality commercial properties, which should translate into increased inflows of investment capital to the market,” comments Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
The fourth quarter is expected to be a period of intensified activity, with several major transactions exceeding EUR 100 million likely to be finalized. As a result, total investment volume in 2025 may surpass EUR 4 billion.
