Commercial Developers’ Activity Highest in a Decade

In 2024, the trade market in Poland achieved record-breaking momentum, recording the best result since 2015. The report “At a Glance. The Modern Trade Market in Poland” for the fourth quarter of 2024, by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, points to the growing role of changing shopping parks and trends in luxury goods, as well as the practical use of AI in trading.

A Record-Breaking Year

In 2024, developers delivered about 545,000 m2 of modern retail space to the Polish market, the best result since 2015 (when 620,000 m2 were added). Only in the fourth quarter, the commercial resources in Poland increased by about 200,000 m2, making the total modern retail space in Poland reached around 16.5 million m2.

At the end of 2024, about 330,000 m2 of modern retail space was under construction (including extensions and format changes), about 74% of which was the segment of shopping parks. Shopping centers’ share in the surface under construction at the end of the fourth quarter was only 10%, reaffirming the observed trend during the pandemic of growing importance of shopping parks, which are becoming increasingly popular for convenient and fast shopping nearby.

Transformation of Shopping Parks

It’s worth noting that the market for shopping parks and convenience centers in Poland is undergoing a significant transformation.

– “The shopping parks established before 2010 in Poland covered an area of up to 100,000 m2, usually offering a relatively limited number of store categories. Today’s shopping parks have an average area below 10,000 m2 and a diverse mix of tenants. They appear in smaller and smaller towns, even those with a population below 50,000,” says Fabrice Paumelle, Director of Commercial Spaces Department.

BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland analysis shows that about one-third of the rental space of shopping parks is occupied by discount networks like Pepco, Action, TEDI, and Dealz, and 15% by food discounters. In large agglomerations, these facilities attract more tenants from the catering, entertainment, and DIY sectors. They increasingly serve as showrooms and collection points for online orders, fitting into the omnichannel strategy.

Trends for the Coming Years: Luxury Goods and AI in Shopping

In this context, it is worth noting that the Polish luxury goods market is consolidating.

– “According to KPMG data, this market reached a value of PLN 55.6 billion at the end of 2024, an increase of 24.6% compared to 2023. Although the luxury goods market in Poland is still in the development phase, the increasing purchasing power and consumer awareness of Poles have led to increased interest in luxury products and services. This also reflects broader economic and social changes taking place in Poland, ” says Klaudia Okoń, Senior Consultant of the Business Intelligence Hub & Consultancy Department.

The largest share (65%) in this segment in 2024 were premium and luxury cars, valued at PLN 36 billion. Luxury hotel and spa services market was next, worth PLN 7.8 billion (14% share in the segment).

Furthermore, consumers’ expectations in the e-commerce industry are changing. Currently, most e-consumers indicate that a complex payment process is the main reason for giving up purchases. However, modern technologies, such as one-step checkout or one-click payments (e.g., Apple Pay), may further influence the popularity of intuitive, quick, and secure online shopping processes.

Consumers are also increasingly willing to order goods from abroad. Cross-border sales are forecasted to grow twice as fast as domestic trade. 2025 will also bring further development of features allowing for more engaging and personalized shopping experiences. Thanks to the progress of generative artificial intelligence, e-commerce representatives will introduce virtual fitting rooms, furniture visualizations in home space, interactive showrooms, or AI assistants.