Investing in coffee has delivered returns nearly as high as gold in 2025. While gold remains the top-performing commodity, coffee secured third place among futures contracts, with only beef cattle yielding slightly higher returns. However, experts warn that investing in agricultural commodities like coffee, cocoa, or orange juice is highly speculative and carries substantial risk.
“Cocoa and orange juice, which surged in price in 2024, are no longer performing as well,” says Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at XTB, in an interview with MarketNews24. “Coffee is a different story.”
Coffee: Strong Gains Despite a Recent Dip
From the beginning of 2025 through early May:
- Gold rose by 25%, setting a new all-time high at $3,506.94 per ounce on May 5.
- Coffee followed closely with a 21% increase.
Coffee was briefly even closer to gold in terms of year-to-date (YTD) return, though it has softened slightly in recent weeks. Notably, coffee prices already soared in 2024, reaching the highest levels in nearly 50 years.
Volatility in Cocoa and Orange Juice
By contrast, cocoa futures are down over 15% YTD, while orange juice has plunged 30%, making it the worst-performing agricultural commodity in 2025 so far. That said, cocoa prices have recently rebounded, returning to above $11,000 per metric ton.
“The market shows that many manufacturers can’t absorb such high cocoa prices,” explains Stajniak.
“Major chocolate producers like Mondelez International and Hershey have already announced more price increases.”
Weather conditions are expected to improve harvests this season for coffee, cocoa, and orange juice, unlike the previous year, which was marked by unfavorable weather patterns.
Outlook: Modest Recovery Ahead
Analysts expect the price of orange juice to continue falling. However, both coffee and cocoa may see renewed upward movement once the current correction ends — though growth will likely be limited due to weaker demand.
While gold remains a popular investment, agricultural commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and orange juice attract far fewer investors.
“Investing in financial instruments tied to agricultural commodities is speculative by nature,” Stajniak emphasizes.
“And such speculation comes with high risk due to the extreme price volatility in these markets.”
Real-World Impact: Chocolate Prices Felt the Most
From a consumer standpoint, the impact of commodity price swings has been most visible in chocolate prices — a direct result of cocoa market fluctuations.
Source: ManagerPlus – Gold Still on Top, But Coffee Shows Strong Growth Potential
