After reaching record levels earlier this year, cocoa prices have fallen by 51%, while chocolate manufacturers have enjoyed a 14% increase in share value thanks to improving margins.
Data from the past five years show that strong cocoa prices have historically weighed on confectionery stocks — but the recent decline could mark a turning point for the sector.
An analysis by eToro suggests that chocolate makers’ shares may be poised for a temporary rebound.
A Sweet Relief Before Halloween
Just ahead of Halloween, chocolate producers received a much-needed breather. According to the latest analysis from eToro, after years of record-high production costs, cocoa prices have dropped by 51% this year.
Thanks to this decline, the “basket of confectionery stocks” — comprising Lindt, Hershey, Mondelez, and Nestlé — has risen 14% since the beginning of 2025, marking its best performance since 2021.
However, the data reveal a more nuanced picture. Over the past year, confectionery shares have gained only 2%, indicating that last year’s record cocoa prices are still influencing corporate results. While the “sweet basket” has seen a modest 2% increase over three years, the five-year growth of 18% reflects the industry’s ability to protect profit margins during one of the most volatile commodity price cycles in decades.
In the UK, data from the consumer organization Which? show that chocolate prices rose 14.6% between 2020 and August 2025 — underscoring how producers have passed costs on to consumers while maintaining steady demand.
Cocoa’s Rollercoaster Ride
This resilience looks even more striking when compared to the 153% surge in cocoa prices since 2020, driven by repeated poor harvests and export bottlenecks in West Africa.
That chocolate makers’ shares have largely held their ground despite such turmoil highlights both the sector’s resilience and consumers’ willingness to keep buying — even amid steep price increases.
“Chocolate producers can finally breathe easier thanks to falling cocoa prices,”
said Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro.
“Even after years of extreme cost pressure, the sector performed far better than expected. The data show that while people may cut back on major luxury purchases, they rarely give up smaller treats — and that has helped keep chocolate company shares remarkably stable.”
Lindt Leads the Pack
Among listed producers, Lindt remains the sector leader, up 30% year-to-date, 22% over one year, 35% over three years, and 57% over five years.
Hershey gained 10% year-to-date, flat over one year, and +27% over five years, while Mondelez (+5% YTD; +10% over five years) and Nestlé (+12% YTD; –22% over five years) posted more volatile results.
“This is an industry that has shown remarkable resilience,”
North added.
“Even when cocoa prices doubled, consumers didn’t stop buying — they simply adapted. The question now is whether this resilience will hold if sales remain sluggish during Halloween and the holiday season.”
Performance Comparison: Confectionery vs. Cocoa
| Brand/Index | Year-to-Date (YTD) | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return | 5-Year Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez | +5% | –12% | +10% | +10% |
| Hershey | +10% | 0% | –18% | +27% |
| Nestlé | +12% | –2% | –20% | –22% |
| Lindt | +30% | +22% | +35% | +57% |
| Confectionery Basket | +14% | +2% | +2% | +18% |
| Cocoa | –51% | –24% | +153% | +153% |
Stock prices reflect market closing data as of October 21, 2025.
Index and commodity returns are calculated in US dollars. Data sourced from Refinitiv and Business Insider.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source: CEO.com.pl – “Cocoa Prices Fall 51% as Chocolate Makers Recover the Sweetness of Profits”
