Climate change is having a significant impact on farmers and agricultural production. According to the report “The Impact of Climate Change on Poland’s National Security” prepared by the Climate Coalition, rising temperatures, drought, and lack of rainfall are leading to lower global yields, the emergence of new plant and animal diseases, and growing threats to certain crops. This, in turn, drives food prices higher. Analyses indicate that in the future, crop and livestock losses may continue to increase.
In July this year, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.1 points. That was 2.1 points (1.6%) higher than the previous month but still well below the record high of 2022, when the global market was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and disruptions to supply chains from both countries. However, some product groups are now at record highs or close to them, particularly meat, dairy, and vegetable oils.
According to Statistics Poland (GUS), food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in price by 4.9% year-on-year in June 2025, compared with 5.5% in May. Food alone increased by 4.8%, with oils and fats rising the most—by an average of 11%, including vegetable fats up 4.4%. Compared to June 2024, fruit prices were up 11.1%, dairy products (milk, cheese, and eggs) rose by 6.1%, and bread was 4.2% more expensive. On the other hand, vegetable and flour prices fell by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively. In July, food prices were up 4.7% compared with July 2024.
“When we talk about factors influencing food prices, we must highlight weather-related risks linked to climate change. If large areas are hit by flooding, those fields lose their yields. At the same time, drought—which has been a recurring phenomenon in Polish agriculture for over a decade—is equally serious,” explains Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak, atmospheric physicist, climate change expert, and member of the Climate Council at the UN Global Compact Network Poland.
According to the Climate Coalition’s report, Poland has faced recurring summer droughts since 2011, causing income losses for farmers of nearly 20%. Losses in three main crop categories—tubers, grains, and oilseeds—are estimated at 3.9–6.5 billion PLN annually. Climate scenario analysis for spring wheat shows that the risk of major crop losses between 2021–2050 is four times higher than in 1971–2000, and six times higher between 2071–2100. Since spring grains account for 40% of total cereal cultivation in Poland, this directly threatens food security.
“Drought directly reduces crop yields year after year and degrades soil quality. Often we see dust rising from fields—it may look spectacular, but in reality, it is decades of nature’s work being carried away by the wind. In our climate zone, it takes 100 to 200 years to build just one centimeter of soil,” Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak explains. “So we can imagine how the wind is literally blowing away centuries of natural work. This alone shows the precarious state of agriculture and how strongly climate change affects yields.”
Poland has relatively few high-quality soils. Chernozems cover just 1% of the country’s surface, as do black soils. Alluvial soils make up 5%, while brown and podzolic soils account for 52%.
“The vast majority of Poland’s soils are of medium quality, and when combined with drought, they simply cannot feed us,” the climate expert notes. “Agriculture largely depends on water availability and changing demand structures. In Poland, crops requiring less water are increasingly common, but they tend to be more energy-intensive—like maize, which has been yielding more in recent years. At the same time, we now have very few winter cereals, as winters are too mild. Climate conditions are directly reshaping crop structures.”
The report’s authors warn that climate change will reduce global yields of most staple crops. Corn, soybeans, fruits, vegetables, legumes, and root crops are all at risk. For nearly a decade, demand for black tea has exceeded supply. Data cited in the report show that yield losses due to higher temperatures and reduced rainfall are especially evident in warmer countries. In Africa, every day with temperatures above 30°C reduces crop yields by an average of 1%. When combined with drought, losses rise to 1.7% per day. In Australia, staple grain yields between 1990 and 2015 may have dropped by 27% compared with a scenario without climate-related shifts. In Italy, grain yields declined by about 5% after 1989.
“Climate change affects us all, especially when it comes to imported goods like coffee or cocoa. A weather disaster in South America—one of the world’s largest coffee producers—not only devastates farmers there but also impacts our market. Similarly, drought is shrinking olive harvests in the Mediterranean,” Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak points out. “Of course, one could argue we can live without coffee, chocolate, or olives, but drought is also hitting fruit and vegetable harvests here in Poland.”
She emphasizes that imported products such as coffee, cocoa, and vanilla will not disappear entirely from the market, but their prices and availability will change.
“Larger and more advanced agrotechnical processes are needed to keep Polish crops viable. We do have the tools and methods to control production, but they will become less accessible and more expensive. It is not unlikely that in 20–30 years coffee will be considered a luxury item—more expensive than it already is today,” the expert predicts.
Another key factor that will directly influence food prices is the pace of the energy transition, which is also tied to climate change.
“If energy is expensive, it will inevitably push up prices across the board, including for everything we eat,” explains Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak.
