January 2026 brought a clear rebound in the instalment-loan and mortgage markets, alongside moderate growth in cash loans. The data show year-on-year improvement, although seasonal weakness is visible compared with December 2025. At the same time, the repayment quality of banks’ loan portfolios remains at a safe level, even as credit-card losses are rising.
Instalment loans: strong YoY growth, but smaller ticket sizes
In January 2026, banks and lenders granted 25.6% more instalment loans than in January 2025. In value terms, growth reached 8.9% year on year. At the same time, month-on-month dynamics were negative: the number of instalment loans fell by 18.5%, and their value declined by 25.0% compared with December 2025.
The figures suggest that consumers are using instalment financing more often than a year earlier, but they are borrowing smaller amounts. The average instalment-loan value in January 2026 was PLN 1,750, a 13.3% decrease year on year.
January was another month that interrupted the negative downward trend visible since the beginning of 2025, both in the number and value of instalment loans. This can be read as a signal that conditions may be improving in 2026.
According to Prof. Waldemar Rogowski, PhD (habilitation), Chief Analyst at the BIK Group, the rebound is supported by two key factors: continued wage growth (albeit at a slowing pace) and declining interest rates. Both increase room in household budgets, including for borrowers already servicing other liabilities such as mortgages.
An additional impulse may come from improved conditions in the housing market. Purchases of household appliances and electronics for newly bought properties are often financed through instalment loans, frequently offered with 0% APR. In the coming months, instalment-loan sales may also be supported by rising retail-sales momentum—provided geopolitical uncertainty eases, as it currently encourages some consumers to remain cautious and save.
Cash loans: moderate but steady growth
The cash-loan segment is expanding more slowly than instalment loans and mortgages, yet it is still posting gains. In January 2026, the number of cash loans granted was 1.0% higher year on year, while their value rose by 4.0%.
The average cash-loan amount reached PLN 26,498, up 2.9% versus January 2025.
Since early 2025, a trend has emerged toward taking out cash loans for increasingly higher amounts. The fastest growth is seen in loans exceeding PLN 50,000. This results from a combination of three factors that improve creditworthiness:
- longer loan maturities,
- interest-rate cuts and lower pricing on new loans,
- real wage growth.
These developments also support debt-consolidation activity, which remains one of the main drivers of lending in this segment.
Mortgages: high activity and nearly PLN 10 billion in monthly volumes
The strongest growth was recorded in housing loans. In January 2026, banks granted 32.1% more mortgages year on year, although the figure was 17.8% lower month on month.
The value of mortgage lending surged by 41.4% year on year and was 2.6% higher than in December 2025. Total mortgage sales in January reached nearly PLN 10 billion.
The average mortgage amount was PLN 455,000, a 7.1% increase year on year.
High activity in this segment reflects improving credit capacity, supported by interest-rate cuts and real income growth. It is also helped by favorable conditions in the housing market. About 80% of current mortgage lending finances purchases on the primary and secondary markets, while the remaining 20% consists of refinancing previously taken loans—most often those with periodically fixed interest rates.
Portfolio quality: broadly stable, but credit-card losses are rising
In January, the month-on-month readings of the BIK Bank Loan Quality Indices deteriorated slightly:
- cash loans: +0.05,
- instalment loans: +0.04,
- housing loans: +0.02.
Monthly fluctuations are typical for these indicators. Year on year, the quality of mortgage and cash-loan portfolios improved, meaning risk levels remain low and safe.
Somewhat more concerning signals come from the credit-card segment. Loss rates increased by 0.39 percentage points year on year. Still, it is worth noting that the current credit-card quality index remains lower than in January 2023 and January 2020.
Experts stress that the indices should be monitored continuously to detect any early signs of deterioration in portfolio quality.
Outlook for 2026
The January 2026 data point to improving conditions across the key segments of the credit market. Wage growth and lower interest rates are boosting households’ credit capacity, supporting both consumption financing and home purchases.
However, the critical factor for further growth remains the level of geopolitical uncertainty. A decline in uncertainty could translate into a higher willingness to spend and a further strengthening of credit growth in the following months of 2026.
Source: CEO.com.pl (link provided by the user)
