Instead of the shock many had been bracing for, the housing market has received a dose of much-needed calm—this is the simplest way to describe the mood after the latest ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on the WIBOR benchmark. What does it mean for current borrowers and for those planning to buy a home in 2026?
Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom, explains.
Over the past few days, the long-awaited CJEU decision regarding mortgage loans based on the WIBOR rate has finally arrived. From the housing market’s perspective, the key point is that the EU court found no grounds to challenge the very structure of these contracts. Put plainly, we are not facing a scenario comparable to what we saw with Swiss franc (CHF) mortgages. That said, the ruling does not close the broader issue of whether banks reliably informed customers—at the time they applied for financing—about the risks associated with variable interest rates.
Keeping the existing rules intact matters because a significant share of homes in Poland are purchased with the support of a mortgage. Had the CJEU undermined WIBOR rates, it could have triggered turmoil on a scale potentially even greater than the one we faced with CHF loans—despite the fact that, over the past year, banks have mainly been granting fixed-rate mortgages.
Currently, around 75% of newly issued mortgages carry fixed interest rates, while only 25% are based on WIBOR. At first glance, this might suggest the issue concerns only one quarter of the market. In reality, however, that is not the case. Just a few years ago, there were periods when nearly all newly granted loans were WIBOR-based. As a result, the number of active contracts still in the system—and still dependent on WIBOR—is far higher than today’s 25% share of new lending would imply.
Although the proportion of variable-rate loans within the overall portfolio of zloty-denominated housing mortgages has been steadily declining since 2022, variable-rate mortgages still account for almost 90% of all active mortgage agreements. By value, their share of the total portfolio does not exceed 70% (equivalent to roughly PLN 340 billion).
For people who are already repaying a mortgage, the CJEU ruling is a clear signal that this is not an analogue of the CHF-loan situation. In practice, the size of monthly instalments will continue to depend primarily on decisions of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council and the level of interest rates.
There are therefore no visible grounds for the kind of mass contract challenges we saw with CHF mortgages. That route now appears effectively closed. While some borrowers—hoping to recover money through the courts—may feel a measure of disappointment, from the perspective of the wider economy this is an important moment of de-escalation. We need stability in the banking system today more than ever. It directly affects the condition of the entire housing sector, which is a key pillar of the Polish economy. For that reason, this decision serves all of us—not only the banks.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/tsue-i-wibor-rynek-mieszkaniowy-zamiast-wstrzasu-dostal-potrzebny-spokoj-81440
